Event: in 2023, Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 2.415 billion yuan, an increase of 6.71% over the same period last year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 241 million yuan, up 5.65% over the same period last year; and in 2023, Q3 achieved operating income of 550 million yuan, an increase of 20.86% over the same period last year, and net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies was-15 million yuan.
Main points of investment:
The main business zongzi achieved high growth, moon cakes Mid-Autumn Festival sales pressure. From a product point of view, 2023 Q1-Q3, zongzi series / moon cake series / food series / egg products, pastries and other realized revenue 18.81 max 1.55max 1.13 / 218 million yuan, compared with the same period last year + 10.58% Mobil 13.32% Acme 2.41% Rue 3.88, accounting for 79.45% 6.56% 4.79% 9.19% respectively In the single quarter of Q3 in 2023, the revenue of zongzi series / moon cake series / food series / egg products, pastries and other products was 2.99, 1.55 and 0.42 / 38 million yuan. Compared with the same period last year, the revenue and profits of some zongzi products in Q2 were postponed to Q3 to confirm that the consumption of Mid-Autumn Festival mooncakes was weak and the company's mooncake sales were under pressure due to the late Dragon Boat Festival.
Chain stores continue to recover offline, and e-commerce channels are growing rapidly. From the point of view of different channels, the income of 23Q1-Q31 chain stores / e-commerce / merchant super / dealers respectively achieved 2.99pm 7.88pm 2.71 / 880 million yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year, + 27.50% Universe 6.45% Dynamic12.73% picks 11.65% mae Q3 chain stores / e-commerce / merchant supermarkets / dealers / other income respectively realized income 0.82Mab 3.40Univer 0.25 / 61 million yuan. Compared with the same period last year, the growth rate of e-commerce is relatively fast, mainly due to the company's continued increase in input from new platforms such as Douyin, Little Red Book and Dingwu. The market share of brands led by Douyin platform has increased significantly. As of 2023 Q3, the number of dealers is 737, a net increase of 30.
The gross profit margin remained stable and the expense rate decreased. 23Q1-Q3 's gross profit margin is 38.57%, year-on-year-0.50pct TX Q3 gross profit margin is 28.67%, year-on-year-0.03%. The sales expense rate / management expense rate of 23Q1-Q3 is 18.78% and 5.76% respectively, and the rate of sales expense / management expense of Q3 is 25.23% and 8.56%, respectively, compared with the same period of last year. The rate of sales expense / management expense of Q3 is 25.23% and 8.56%, respectively, compared with the same period last year.-0.43pct/-1.68pcts. The net interest rate of 23Q1-Q3 is 9.96%, compared with the same period of last year. The net interest rate of Q3 is-2.79%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: considering that the sales of zongzi mooncakes are lower than expected, we lower our profit forecast and expect the net profit for 23-25 years to be 1.94pm 2.30 / 267 million yuan (the original 2.25pm 2.74 / 331 million yuan for 23-25 years). Considering that the company, as the first brand of zongzi in China, implements the strategy of "waxy +" diversified products, we are optimistic about the continuous development of the company. Give 2024 22 times PE, corresponding to the target price of 35 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of sales falling short of expectations; the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; the risk of food safety