Core viewpoints
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved a net profit of 1.469 billion yuan, an increase of 524.49% over the same period last year, mainly due to the rebound in thermal power profits driven by the continuous decline in domestic coal prices, the new coal power installed abroad and the continuous expansion of domestic green power. In the third quarter of 2023, the company achieved a net profit of 681 million yuan, an increase of 146.23% over the same period last year. The improvement in the company's performance was mainly due to the improvement in domestic thermal power performance and the increase in Turkish thermal power profits compared with the same period last year. By the end of the third quarter of 2023, the company's holding installed capacity structure is coal power, gas power, wind power and photovoltaic is 9.848 million kilowatts, 3.6202 million kilowatts, 3.9241 million kilowatts, 4.6709 million kilowatts respectively, clean energy installation accounts for 55.37% of Prida, the company's clean energy installed scale continues to expand. We forecast that the company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be 2.29 billion yuan, 3.259 billion yuan and 3.768 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Event
The company publishes three quarterly reports for 2023
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 31.447 billion yuan, an increase of 12.91% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 1.469 billion yuan, an increase of 524.49% over the same period last year. EPS was 0.4952 yuan per share, compared with 0.051 yuan per share in the same period last year; the weighted average ROE was 8.03 percent, an increase of 7.12 percent over the same period last year. In the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 11.201 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.28% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 681 million yuan, an increase of 146.23% over the same period last year.
Brief comment
Domestic thermal power profits have been gradually repaired, and the proportion of clean energy installed continues to rise. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 31.447 billion yuan, an increase of 12.91% over the same period last year, mainly due to the installation and production of coal power and new energy in Turkey. The net profit reached 1.469 billion yuan, an increase of 524.49% over the same period last year, mainly due to the rebound in the profits of thermal power driven by the continuous decline in domestic coal prices, the installation of new coal power abroad and the continuous expansion of domestic green power. In the third quarter of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 11.201 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.28% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 681 million yuan, an increase of 146.23% over the same period last year. The improvement in the company's performance was mainly due to the improvement in domestic thermal power performance and the increase in Turkish thermal power profits compared with the same period last year. By the end of the third quarter of 2023, the company's holding installed capacity structure was 9.848 million kilowatts of coal power, 3.6202 million kilowatts of gas power, 3.9241 million kilowatts of wind power and 4.6709 million kilowatts of photovoltaic, accounting for 44.64%, 16.41%, 17.79% and 21.17%, respectively. Clean energy accounts for 55.37% of Prida, an increase of 1.94% compared with the previous month, and the company's clean energy installed scale continues to expand.
In the third quarter of 2023, the company added 917600 kilowatts of holding installed capacity, of which Minhang gas turbine H-class units were put into production of 745000 kilowatts, and the rest are photovoltaic power generation projects. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company installed 40,000 kilowatts of wind power and 3629,000 kilowatts of photovoltaic power.
The scale of power generation is growing steadily, and the degree of marketization is constantly improving.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company completed the merger of caliber power generation of 56.11 billion kWh, an increase of 20.6% over the same period last year, of which coal power, gas power, wind power and photovoltaic completed 39.283 billion kWh, 5.444 billion kWh, 6.833 billion kWh and 4.35 billion kWh respectively, representing year-on-year changes of + 28.62%, + 4.88%, + 3.67% and + 7.44%, respectively. In the third quarter alone, the company's coal power, gas power, wind power and photovoltaic generated electricity of 15.022 billion kWh, 2.571 billion kWh, 1.819 billion kWh and 1.651 billion kWh respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 16.19%, + 1.9%,-10.48% and + 3.84%.
In terms of feed-in electricity price, in the first three quarters of 2023, the average online price of the company was 0.61 yuan per kilowatt-hour, unchanged from the same period last year. In terms of market trading electricity, from January to September 2023, the company's market transaction settlement electricity was 38.696 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 29.85 percent over the same period last year, of which direct supply transaction electricity was 259.22 kilowatt-hours, an increase of 44.49 percent over the same period last year, and electricity purchased by power grid agents was 12.07 billion kilowatt-hours, up 16.47 percent from the same period last year. Spot trading electricity is 143 million kilowatt-hours.
The company actively expands its business scale and maintains its "buy" rating.
The company continues to expand its business margin. At the end of September 2023, the second phase of the company's Caojing Comprehensive Energy Center project was approved by the Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission. According to the national coal power "first establishment and then reform" work plan, two 1 million kilowatt ultra-supercritical coal power units will be built. 23Q3, the company acquired 100% stake in Qingyun photovoltaic (Lianyungang) company in China, and 51% stake in Serbia's Black Peak wind power project abroad, with a total installed capacity of about 150,000 kilowatts. The profit of the company's coal power business continues to improve, and the scale of clean energy continues to expand. We forecast that the company's net profit in 2023 to 2025 will be 2.29 billion yuan, 3.259 billion yuan and 3.768 billion yuan respectively; the net profit belonging to common shareholders will be 2.16 billion yuan, 3.129 billion yuan and 3.637 billion yuan respectively; and the EPS will be 0.77 yuan per share, 1.11 yuan per share and 1.29 yuan per share respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk analysis.
The price of thermal coal rebounded: if the extreme weather leads to high temperature, the demand for thermal coal continues to rise, the market price of thermal coal may rebound, the cost of the company's thermal power business may increase significantly, and the domestic thermal power business may continue to lose money. 2023 performance of the company will also be affected accordingly.
Uncertainty of overseas business: part of the company's power plant business is located overseas and is greatly affected by changes in the international economic and political environment. If drastic changes occur in the international environment, resulting in damage to the company's overseas assets or shrinking revenue quality, the company's 2023 performance may be reduced accordingly.
Exchange rate risk: if the Turkish economic environment changes dramatically and the Turkish lira falls against the RMB, the efficiency of the company's overseas power plants will be reduced and the company's performance may not be as good as expected.