Brief comment on performance
On October 27, 2023, Haili Wind Power released its third quarter report for 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.55 billion yuan, an increase of 32.85%, and a net profit of 65 million yuan, down 72.97%. Of this total, 3Q23 achieved operating income of 516 million yuan, down 0.69%, net profit of-70 million yuan, down 238.97%, and non-return net profit of-70 million yuan, down 253.26%. The performance was basically in line with expectations.
Business analysis
The company's 3Q23 performance has declined to a certain extent compared with the previous month. The main reasons are: (1) due to the long settlement cycle of completed projects during the "rush to install" period, the company makes provision for bad debts according to accounting policies; (2) the overall construction of new offshore wind farms is still relatively slow. Offshore wind power parts manufacturers are greatly affected by the progress of downstream development, shipments are less than expected and profits are declining. (3) due to the poor wind speed conditions of the offshore wind farms invested by the company, there is less power generation in the current period, and the investment income is significantly lower than that of last year. (4) under the combined influence of factors such as increased depreciation of the company's assets, unsaturated capacity utilization and fierce competition in the industry, the gross profit margin is lower than that of the same period last year as a whole. It is expected that with the gradual restart of the sea breeze project in Jiangsu Province and the landing of the results of the sea area competition in Guangdong Province, the factors hindering the development of the sea breeze may be gradually cleared, and the installation progress of the sea breeze is expected to be accelerated.
In the first three quarters, the company's period expense rate was 5.10%, a change over the same period last year + 2.03PCT, in which the sales expense rate, management expense rate (including R & D expenses) and financial expense rate were 0.47%, 5.06% and 0.42%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-0.15/+0.74/+1.45PCT.
The company's production capacity continues to advance. By the end of the reporting period, the company has many production bases, such as Haili sea, sea power equipment, Haiheng equipment, and so on. In addition, the company plans to add Nantong Xiaoyangkou base, Qidong Lu Sigang base, Yancheng coastal base, Shandong Dongying base, Shandong Rushan base, Hainan Yangpu base and so on.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We expect the net profit from 2023 to 2025 to be 1.88,8.78 and 1.195 billion yuan, with the current share price corresponding to 75, 16 and 12 times PE respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
Due to the offshore wind power policy leads to the risk of industrial investment slowdown, raw material price fluctuation risk, epidemic repeated risk, the risk of lifting the ban on restricted shares.