Event: on October 27, 2023, the company released its third quarterly report of 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 2.871 billion yuan, an increase of 1.95 percent over the same period last year, a net profit of 715 million yuan, an increase of 3.34 percent, and a non-return net profit of 728 million yuan, an increase of 4.27 percent over the same period last year. 23Q3 realized revenue of 900 million yuan, down 14.59% from the same period last year; realized net profit of 223 million yuan, down 13.85% from the same period last year; and deducted 219 million yuan from non-net profit, down 18.13% from the same period last year.
Profitability is expected to stabilize and expenses are well controlled.
1) profitability: the annual gross profit margin and net profit margin of 23Q3 are 38.51% and 24.93% respectively, with year-on-year changes in 1.80pcts/-0.25pct, improvement of gross profit margin and stabilization of the company's profitability, thanks to the relatively stable prices of major raw materials and the basic relief of basement membrane supply. From January to September 23, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company were 38.69% and 24.99% respectively, with year-on-year changes + 0.43pct/+0.05pct respectively.
2) in terms of expenses, the expense rate during 23Q3 is 10.14%, an increase of 3.46pcts over the same period last year, in which the rates of sales, management and financial expenses are 1.40%, 3.90% and 0.21%, respectively, with year-on-year changes + 0.01.pct/-0.21pct/+1.74pcts. The company continued to invest in R & D, and 23Q3 invested 45 million yuan in R & D, with a R & D expenditure rate of 5.05%, an increase of 1.92pcts over the same period last year.
During the period from January to September, 23, the expense rate was 8.20%, an increase of 0.51pct over the same period last year, of which the sales, management and financial expense rates were 1.37%, 3.96% and 0.95%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-0.21pct/-0.28pct/+0.55pct.
From January to September in 23 years, 110 million yuan was invested in R & D, and the R & D expenditure rate reached 3.82%, which was + 0.45pct compared with the same period last year.
Downstream new energy vehicles and photovoltaic continued to grow.
The company is actively expanding high-end customers in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, industrial control and other fields. Optical storage and new energy go hand in hand, and are expected to become the two pillars supporting the company's revenue growth. In 23, according to the company, photovoltaic and new energy revenue grew by more than 30% compared with the same period last year, of which optical storage revenue accounted for 33%, new energy vehicle revenue accounted for 38%, and industrial control income accounted for 20%. 1) Photovoltaic: photovoltaic revenue is expected to continue to benefit from photovoltaic new installation and industry chain reduction: China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that China's annual photovoltaic installed capacity may exceed 75GW during the 14th five-year Plan period, and there is a broad market space. 2) New energy vehicles: the new energy vehicle market is hot. GGII estimates that global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 26 million by 2025, and the company's corresponding product sales are expected to increase. According to NE era data, the company's new energy vehicle DC support (DC-Link) thin film capacitor ranked first with a market share of 35.4% in 22 years. 3) Industrial control: with the development of communication technology, cloud computing and industrial automation, and the localization of rail transit and power grid components, the related market is growing steadily.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 to be 40.88,51.97 and 6.582 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 6.6%, 27.1% and 26.6%, respectively, and the corresponding net profit will be 10.59,13.26 and 1.66 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 5.2%, 25.3% and 25.1% respectively. Based on the closing price on October 27, the corresponding PE for 2023-2025 is 20x, 16x and 13x. Maintain the recommended rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk; exchange rate change risk.