Brief comment on performance
On October 27, 2023, the company released its third quarterly report for 23 years. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved income of 5.611 billion yuan,-9.40% compared with the same period last year; net profit of 386 million yuan, + 3.58%; and non-return net profit of 311 million yuan, + 19.60% of the same period last year.
In a single quarter, the company's 2023Q3 realized revenue of 1.84 billion yuan, year-on-year-6.36%; net profit of 163 million yuan, + 4.20%; and non-return net profit of 133 million yuan, + 15.61% of the same period last year.
Business analysis
The goal of integration with China Resources for 300 to 900 days has been successfully completed and has entered a new stage. The integration of the company and China Resources Sanjiu is progressing steadily in accordance with the mechanism of 100-day integration, one-year integration and three-year integration. In the 100-day integration stage, the company and China Resources Sanjiu solidly promoted the strategic, organizational and cultural integration, successfully completed the 100-day integration goal, and successfully entered the one-year integration stage.
In accordance with the "four remodeling" requirements of value reshaping, business reshaping, organizational reshaping and spiritual reshaping, all work is progressing methodically and steadily.
Strong channels contribute to product growth. The company's product terminal coverage has increased steadily, and the brand influence has been expanded, reflecting a solid and steady development potential. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's CHC segment has completed the integration of first-level channel merchants in 20 provinces and regions in China, with a substantial increase in per capita sales and a significant increase in the quality of CHC business, laying a solid foundation for continuous business integration. The key varieties of Kunming traditional Chinese medicine, such as Shenling Jianpiwei granules, Shugan granules, Xiangsha Pingwei granules, Banlan Qingre granules, Qingfei Huatan pills, all increased by more than 30% in the third quarter.
Actively promote R & D and innovation. The company's independently developed product dihydroartemisinin phosphate piperaquine tablets 40mg/320mg passed the WHO-PQ certification on-site inspection, and finally obtained the WHO PQ certification, which is included in the procurement scope of antimalarial drugs of the World Health Organization, international organizations and public institutions, providing important support and guarantee for the company to expand into the international market. In terms of the progress of clinical trials of innovative drugs, KYAZ01-2011-020, a class 1 drug independently developed by the company for ischemic stroke, has started more than 20 research centers in the clinical II phase, and the trial is progressing in an orderly manner; suitable for isocitrate dehydrogenase-1 (IDH1) gene mutation class 1 innovative drug KYAH01-2016-079clinical phase I continues to be included in the group.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be 6.12,7.44 and 881 million yuan respectively, an increase of 60%, 22% and 18% over the same period last year. From 2023 to 2025, the EPS of the company is 0.81,0.98,1.16 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 25,20,17 times respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
Policy risk; product collection risk, product promotion is not expected, medical insurance drug price limit risk, brand value change risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, shareholder reduction risk.