公司今年以来营业收入连续实现平稳增长，2023Q1-Q3 单季度的营收同比增速分别为2.25%、8.96%、11.09%，呈现加速向上的经营趋势。公司利润端出现大幅下滑，主要是由于股权激励摊销费用的拖累，经过公司测算，如果剔除股权激励影响，2023Q3 实现归母扣非净利润0.24 亿元，同比增长51.33%，2023Q1-Q3 实现归母扣非净利润1.40 亿元，同比增长142.67%。根据股权激励方案，摊销费用的影响主要集中在2023 年和2024 年，由于激励对象主要是针对管理层和业务骨干，摊销费用对于公司的影响主要体现在管理费用的增加，2023Q1-Q3 公司管理费用达到4.40 亿元，同比增长44.11%。股权激励摊销费用对于现金流量表没有影响，2023Q1-Q3 公司累计实现经营现金流净额1.79 亿元，同比增长83.54%。Event: on October 25, 2023, the company released its third quarterly report of 2023.
2023Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 2.507 billion yuan, an increase of 7.51% over the same period last year; net profit of 33 million yuan, down 70.34%; and non-return net profit of 30 million yuan, down 48.41% from the same period last year. 2023Q3 achieved operating income of 900 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 11.09% over the same period last year, realized net profit of-24 million yuan, down 137.87% over the same period last year, and deducted non-return net profit of-19 million yuan, down 222.60% from the same period last year.
Excluding the impact of equity incentives, the performance achieved steady growth.
Since the beginning of this year, the company's operating income has continuously achieved steady growth, and the revenue growth rate of 2023Q1-Q3 in a single quarter is 2.25%, 8.96% and 11.09% respectively, showing an accelerating upward business trend. The profit side of the company declined sharply, mainly due to the drag of equity incentive amortization expenses. according to the company's calculation, if the impact of equity incentives is excluded, 2023Q3 achieves 24 million yuan in non-net profit, an increase of 51.33% over the same period last year. 2023Q1MQ Q3 realized 140 million yuan in non-net profit, an increase of 142.67% over the same period last year. According to the equity incentive scheme, the impact of amortization expense is mainly concentrated in 2023 and 2024. As the incentive object is mainly aimed at management and business backbone, the impact of amortization expense on the company is mainly reflected in the increase in management expenses. The management expenses of 2023Q1-Q3 Company reached 440 million yuan, an increase of 44.11% over the same period last year. Equity incentive amortization expenses had no effect on the cash flow statement. 2023Q1-Q3 achieved a cumulative net operating cash flow of 179 million yuan, an increase of 83.54% over the same period last year.
Xuyi Hengshan Cancer Hospital started, and the expansion project of the hospital continued to fall to the ground.
Since New mileage Group took over the listed company, it has actively promoted the continuous landing of existing hospital expansion projects to build a regional medical center to better serve local patients. According to the company's website, on October 12, 2023, the construction of the complex of Xuyi Hengshan Cancer Hospital officially started, with a total investment of 1.16 billion yuan, a total land area of 36.5mu, a total construction area of 138000 square meters and 600beds. After the completion of the project, it will be characterized by tumor treatment and rehabilitation, and form a strategic coordination with the existing hospital district of Xuyi County Hospital of traditional Chinese Medicine. According to the mid-2023 report, 800 new beds in the new hospital area of Siyang Hospital have been gradually put into use, Xuyi Hengshan Cancer Hospital is expected to add 600 beds, and the new hospital area of Chongzhou second Hospital is expected to add 800 beds. Medical institutions of listed companies have the potential for further expansion.
Investment suggestion: if we do not consider extension mergers and acquisitions, we estimate that the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 will be 3.464 billion yuan, 3.996 billion yuan and 4.745 billion yuan respectively, and the return net profit will be 202 million yuan, 276 million yuan and 395 million yuan respectively (operating net profit, excluding equity incentive amortization expenses), and the corresponding PE valuation level is 52.9,38.9 and 27.1 times, respectively. Given an investment rating of Buy-A, the 12-month target price is 4.00 yuan, corresponding to a 50 times PE in 2024.
Risk tips: asset injection is not as expected; the progress of the hospital expansion project is not as expected; debt risk caused by interest rate fluctuations; medical safety accident risk.
