Main points of investment:
Event: the company released its triennial report for 2023, 2023Q1-3 achieved revenue of 2.612 billion yuan, year-on-year-15.10%; return to the mother net profit of 1.031 billion, year-on-year-0.21%. From a quarterly point of view, 2023Q3's revenue in a single quarter was 701 million yuan, + 7.34% compared with the same period last year, and its net profit was 260 million yuan, + 36.26% compared with the same period last year.
Thanks to the clean-up of long-age payables that do not need to be paid, the net profit of single Q3 increased by 36.26% compared with the same period last year. The company takes the development and operation of the park as the core business, industrial investment and green development as the two wings. The primary development of land based on land transfer is vulnerable to structural fluctuations, such as the rhythm of land transfer, the business model of land transfer, the regional economic environment and so on. The operating income of 2023Q1-3 decreased by 15.10% compared with the same period last year, which may be due to the structural factors of land transfer. Thanks to the significant year-on-year increase in net investment income, fair value change income and non-operating income, 2023Q1-3's net profit fell slightly by 0.21% compared with the same period last year. As non-operating income (cleaning up long-age payables that do not need to be paid, etc.) mainly occurred in the third quarter, 2023Q3's home net profit increased by 36.26% year-on-year.
Green energy is ready to go, press the scale development acceleration key. The subsidiary Zhongxin Green Energy was established in April 2022 and has gradually formed a business collaborative development model with distributed photovoltaic as the main focus and industrial and commercial, district Zhongyuan and development zones as the main application scenaries. the main business areas cover six provinces and one city in East China and Hubei, Henan and other places.
On the one hand, the company accelerates the development of shareholder resources, on the other hand, it is actively acquiring projects through market-oriented means.
In July, Zhongxin Yi Pavilion, jointly invested by Zhongxin Green Energy and Yige New Energy (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., was unveiled. The green energy plate of the company is ready to go, press the scale development acceleration key. The company plans to connect to the grid 2GW in 2025, and if the planning can be realized smoothly, it is expected that distributed photovoltaic will continue to be released in the second half of 23 years.
Industrial investment continues to increase the performance of the company. The company's industrial investment plate continues to make efforts, and the company continues to increase fund investment in this period. Benefiting from the increase in the appreciation of industrial fund investment evaluation, the fair value change income of the company increased by 166.87% in the first three quarters of 2023 compared with the same period last year. In addition, the long-term equity investment income calculated by the company's disposal of subsidiary shares and equity method has increased, and the investment income in the first three quarters of 2023 increased by 33.17% compared with the same period last year. To a certain extent, thicken the company's performance and resist the risk of fluctuation in land sales. Investment income superimposed fair value change income increased significantly, driving the company's 23-year-old Q1-3 sales net interest rate to increase 2.27pct compared with the same period last year.
Profit forecast and investment advice: we expect the return net profit in 23-25 years to be 17.39,20.09 and 2.346 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the corresponding PE of 7.1, 6.2 and 5.3 times, respectively, valuing the company 11 times for 23 years and corresponding to the target price of 12.76 yuan. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the risk of slowing down the pace of land transfer; the risk that the construction of new energy projects is not as expected; policy risk; the risk of fierce competition in industrial investment; the risk that the public information used in the research report may lag behind or not updated in a timely manner.