商用车业务有一定修复，SUV 景气高涨支撑营收稳健增长。1-3Q23 公司实现整车销售221,096 辆，同比+6.46%。其中轻客/卡车/皮卡55,094 辆/46,139 辆/39,530 辆，同比+1.61%/-8.70%/-19.52%；SUV 乘用车80,333辆，同比+49.33%。3Q23 公司实现整车销售74,746 辆，同比+4.23%。其中轻客/卡车/皮卡21,748 辆/14,349 辆/12,115 辆，同比+8.89%/+5.95%/-8.82%；SUV 乘用车26,534 辆，同比+6.52%。往前看，我们认为，3Q23轻卡、福特高端皮卡等投产上市，有望驱动商用车板块加速修复，叠加乘用车板块需求保持强劲，为公司营收增长注入长期动能。3Q23 performance is in line with our expectations
The company announced 1-3Q23 results: revenue 23.508 billion yuan, year-on-year + 6.70%; return to the mother net profit of 1.009 billion yuan, + 40.75% year on year. 3Q23 income 8.079 billion yuan, year-on-year + 3.46%, month-on-month + 2.22%; return mother net profit 280 million yuan, year-on-year + 5.76%, month-on-month-48.77%. That's what we expected.
Trend of development
The commercial vehicle business has been repaired to some extent, and the upsurge in SUV supports steady revenue growth. 1-3Q23 achieved vehicle sales of 221096 vehicles, + 6.46% compared with the same period last year. Among them, light passenger / truck / pick-up truck 55094 / 46139 / 39530, year-on-year + 1.61% Acme 8.70% Accord 19.52% SUV 80333, year-on-year + 49.33%. 3Q23 achieved vehicle sales of 74746 vehicles, + 4.23% compared with the same period last year. Among them, light passengers / trucks / pick-up trucks 21748 / 14349 / 12115, compared with the same period last year + 8.89% Universe 5.95% Universe 5.95% Universe 8.82% SUV 26534, year-on-year + 6.52%. Looking forward, we believe that the launch of 3Q23 light trucks and Ford high-end pick-up trucks is expected to drive the accelerated repair of the commercial vehicle sector, and the demand for superimposed passenger vehicles will remain strong, injecting long-term momentum into the company's revenue growth.
Profitability is stable and improving, and cost control has achieved remarkable results. 1-3Q23 gross profit margin is 15.37%, year-on-year + 1.02 ppt 0.33ppt 3Q23 gross profit margin is 16.58%, year-on-year + 0.33ppt, month-on-month + 0.57ppt. The steady growth of profitability compared with the same month is mainly due to: 1) the realization of scale effect under the growth of sales volume, which equalizes some rigid costs; 2) the cost of raw materials has decreased. The company has a strong ability to control expenses, with a 3Q23 sales / management / financial expense rate of 4.49%, 2.67% and 0.73%, compared with the same period last year-0.48ppt/-0.31ppt/-0.30ppt. R & D investment remains high, and the R & D expenditure rate is + 0.29ppt to 4.99% compared with the same period last year. The month-on-month decline in net profit is mainly due to the fluctuation of profit and loss of minority shareholders. 1-3Q23, the net cash flow of business activities is 2.416 billion yuan, becoming a regular employee compared with the same period last year. We believe that the company's profit space is expected to be further released due to the decline in cost-side prices, fine control on the cost side and improved product-side structure.
The upgrading of the product portfolio has been accelerated and the transformation of new energy has been deepened. With the continuous improvement of the company's product matrix, the company released the new Jiangling Ford Leader in August, the Jiangling Caravan Blue Whale in September, the Ford Quanshun T8 on the market in October and six co-creative saloon cars to lead category innovation. The company accelerated the layout of the new energy sector, released Jiangling Le Hong's new brand and new pure electric light truck platform in June, and signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Baidu, Inc. in September to focus on smart driving technology research and development. We believe that while consolidating the advantages of light commercial vehicles, the company will speed up the layout of passenger vehicle business, product upgrading and new product launch go hand in hand, and it is expected to take advantage of new energy and intelligent development to contribute new growth points to performance.
Profit forecast and valuation
Due to the gradual improvement in profitability, we have raised the net profit of 2023 to 1.186 billion yuan / 1.226 billion yuan. The current share price of A shares corresponds to 13.4 times / 13.0 times of 2023 Compact E in 2024. Maintain the industry rating of outperforming, and simultaneously raise the list price of A shares by 9.7% to 21.5 yuan, corresponding to 15.7 times / 15.1 times Pmax E in 2024, with 16.8% upside space.
Risk
New car sales fell short of expectations and profit repair fell short of expectations.
