3Q23 performance is lower than we expected.
The company announced 3Q23 results: 1-3Q23 operating income of 3.752 billion yuan, year-on-year-20.11%; net profit of 95 million yuan, + 38.94%; deduction of non-return net profit of 40 million yuan,-65.29%. Corresponding to 3Q23 income 1.407 billion yuan, year-on-year-8.80%; net profit 53 million yuan, year-on-year-3.97%; deducting non-return net profit 23 million yuan, year-on-year-76.85%. The company's revenue and performance were lower than we expected, mainly due to the slow recovery of overseas demand.
The demand of the industry has not improved significantly, and the company's income is under pressure: 1) due to the high unit price and strong optional attributes of massage chair products, the company's income and performance have fluctuated greatly in the past three years. 2) 1H23's domestic / foreign revenue is + 15% / 38% respectively compared with the same period last year. We estimate that this trend of 3Q23 continues, and the domestic performance is better than that of overseas. 3) Jiuqian data show that the sales of 3Q23's own brand (Aojiahua + ihoco) in Tmall and JD.com channel sales are + 3.8% compared with the same period last year, and online retail shows a trend of improvement quarter by quarter.
Financial analysis: 1) 3Q23 company gross profit margin 35.5%, year-on-year + 4.0ppt, mainly benefited from RMB depreciation, sea freight price reduction and raw material price reduction, while the company continued to promote cost reduction and efficiency to a certain positive impact. 2) the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate of 3Q23 Company is + 1.0/+1.3/-0.2/+6.4ppt respectively compared with the same period last year, and the significant increase in the financial expense rate is mainly due to the increase in exchange loss caused by exchange rate fluctuations. In addition, the company calculates the existing receivables, inventory and other assets, and the total amount of 3Q23 is + 4.72 million yuan compared with the same period last year. 3) under the comprehensive influence, the parent net interest rate of 3Q23 is 3.8%, which is + 0.2ppt compared with the same period last year.
Trend of development
As the inventory cycle of overseas home appliances is coming to an end, the export industry chain of home appliances shows a warming trend quarter by quarter. Some categories are the first to warm up, but the recovery of massage equipment categories lags behind relatively. According to the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of 1Q23/2Q23/3Q23 massage appliances is-16% and 4% compared with the same period last year. The company continues to promote the global layout of its own brand, and we expect that after the follow-up industry demand picks up, the company will bring new revenue increment for itself by virtue of its strong R & D, manufacturing and marketing capabilities.
Profit forecast and valuation
Due to the slow recovery of overseas demand as a drag on revenue, we cut 2023 Universe's 2024 net profit by 18% to 170 million yuan, and the current share price corresponds to the price-to-earnings ratio of 26.4 Greater 2024. To maintain the neutral rating, due to the downward revision of earnings forecasts and the improvement of the valuation center of the export industry chain, we have lowered the company's target price by 5% to 8.10 yuan, corresponding to the 2023 prime price-earnings ratio of 29.0 to 19.0 times earnings in 2024, which has 10% upside compared to the current stock price.
Risk
The risk of market demand fluctuation; the risk of global economic fluctuation; the risk aggravated by market competition.