Event: the company released its three-quarter report in 2023, with operating income of 8.807 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 23,-3.28% of the same period last year, and net profit of-292 million yuan,-1159.2% of the same period last year. From a quarterly point of view, 23Q3 achieved revenue of 2.596 billion yuan, + 0.3% year-on-year, and net profit of-211 million yuan, year-on-year-1606.5%.
Revenue is basically flat compared with the same period last year, and gross profit margin is relatively under pressure. 23Q3's revenue was 2.596 billion yuan, + 0.3% year-on-year, basically the same as the same period last year; gross margin 22.79%, year-on-year-7.7pcts On the expense side, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates are 11.71%, 9.09%, 0.31%, 1.71%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. We speculate that the slight increase in the sales expense rate is mainly due to the company's increased marketing and marketing of gold standard aging.
Affected by the divestiture of real estate and the downturn of pig prices, the phased pressure on net profit is significant. In the first three quarters of 23 years, the company's net profit in the first three quarters of the year was-292 million yuan, and the net profit of 23Q3 was-211 million. In addition to the pressure on profits caused by losses in real estate and pork business, the increase of 140 million yuan in income tax charges for the sale of two buildings in Shunxin Jiayu Real Estate and Oneworld Center also significantly reduced the level of net profit.
Gold standard aging steadily led the upgrading, real estate to meet the substantial progress. The company is firmly committed to the main business of liquor, the Bai Niu second motion pin returns to a good and stable revenue base, and the gold standard aging leads the upgrading of the structure. The production / sales of the gold standard increased by 96.6% in the first half of the year. 86.6% showed a high growth, Q3 company took advantage of the gold standard to increase the speed of market promotion, through the operation of the "Jinbiao Bull fireworks Restaurant list" marketing project in key cities to deepen food and beverage channels and improve brand awareness. In terms of real estate business, the 100% equity of Shunxin Jiayu was officially disclosed in August 23 at the Beijing property Exchange with a base price of 3.098 billion yuan. On October 10, 23, the floor price was adjusted to 2.51 billion yuan, and the real estate business was spun off continuously. We believe that the company's Bai Niu er + Jinbiao two-wheel drive still has performance resilience, although the performance is under pressure in the short term due to the downturn of the real estate market and business divestiture and the shock of low pig prices, but as the real estate deconstructs and reduces losses and Jinbiao thickens the profit space, the profitability is expected to continue to improve in the future.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company focuses on the determination of the main liquor industry. As liquor sales change from light to prosperous, Jinbiao accelerates market development and real estate business deconstructs and reduces losses, the company is optimistic about the medium-and long-term profit improvement space and performance bottom reversal. We expect the company to achieve a total revenue of 117.25 pounds in 23-25 years and a net profit of 0.93 billion dollars and a recommended rating of 994 million yuan.
Risk hints: macroeconomic downside risks; industry competition intensifies risks; new product promotion is not as expected, etc.