The performance is under short-term pressure and is optimistic that the company's new energy transformation will continue to advance.
The company released three quarterly reports that 23Q1-3 achieved revenue of 285.3 billion, year-on-year + 18%, home net profit of 3.073 billion, year-on-year-26.72%, deducted non-net profit of 2.885 billion, year-on-year + 1.45%, + 11.61%, net profit of 416 million, year-on-year-70.01%, deducted non-net profit of 537 million,-50.2%. The sharp pressure on net profit is mainly affected by the market, the decline in the profitability of cement real estate business and the provision of large credit impairment in the third quarter. The company's performance is under short-term pressure and is optimistic about the smooth progress of the company's energy transformation and fixed growth, which is expected to boost the development of the company's new energy business.
Newly signed orders maintained high growth, energy infrastructure maintained high economic growth, newly signed orders increased significantly, 23Q1-3 newly signed orders increased by 941.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.53%, core main engineering construction business orders increased by 33.59%, traditional energy business increased by 12.18%, new energy and comprehensive smart energy increased by 29.09%, and urban construction and integrated transportation business increased by + 54.99% and 35.06% respectively. Q3 signed 295.576 billion new orders in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 83%. Among them, traditional energy / new energy and integrated smart energy / urban construction / integrated transport business were respectively-33% compared with the same period last year. Energy infrastructure maintained a high boom, while municipal orders increased rapidly. From a sub-regional point of view, the newly signed orders for 23Q1-3 at home and abroad are 11.62% respectively compared with the same period last year. The newly signed order of 23Q1-3 is 3.3 times of the income in the same period, so it is optimistic about the potential of the company's medium-and long-term performance.
Impairment increases greatly, short-term drag on performance, cash flow gradually improves
The gross margin of 23Q1-3 was 10.95%, up 0.47pct from the same period last year, and 10.98% per quarter, down 0.21pct from the same period last year. During the first three quarters, the expense rate was 7.7%, the year-on-year growth rate of 0.23pct, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate respectively compared with the same period last year-0.04pct/-0.16pct/+0.35pct/+0.07pct, the asset and credit impairment respectively accounted for 621 million yuan, an increase of 230 million yuan over the same period last year, and the investment income was-116 million, a decrease of 1.101 billion. The increase in impairment and the decrease in investment income are the main reasons for the drag on performance. Overall, the net interest rate of 23Q1-3 was 1.08%, down 0.65% from the same period last year. The single-quarter net interest rate of Q3 fell 1.32pct to 1.28%. The net amount of 23Q1-3CFO is-14.747 billion, the outflow is 3.807 billion yuan less than the same period last year, the ratio of receipt, payment and cash is 86.75% and 91.14% respectively, the year-on-year change is-1.79pct/-1.51pct, and the cash flow improves slightly.
The prospect of "three new" construction is promising, and the "buy" rating is maintained.
The company's new energy EPC& investment operation landing pace is accelerated, the first layout of hydrogen energy, energy storage to create the second growth curve, we are optimistic about the "three new" (new energy, new infrastructure, new industries) can build prospects. Taking into account the short-term pressure on performance and the uncertainty of future impairment, we downgrade the company's profit forecast and estimate that the 23-25 year net profit will be 73x86x10 billion (the previous value is 90ppm). With reference to the comparable company's 24-year average PE of 9 times, we approve the granting of 13 times PE to the 24-year company, with a target price of 2.69 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the implementation effect of the company's strategy is lower than expected, power and infrastructure investment is weaker than expected, impairment risk, policy risk, non-public offering promotion is not as expected.