Report:
According to the three-quarter report of 2023, Hengrun shares reported that the company achieved operating income of 1.25 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023,-8.08% of the same period last year, 58.062 million yuan of net profit, + 2.51% of the same period last year, and 51.291 million yuan of non-return net profit, + 15.77% of the same period last year. Basically in line with market expectations.
Wind power is affected by depreciation in the short term, and is optimistic about the year of sea breeze installation in 2024. (1) the net profit of Hengrun shares in the third quarter was 2.753 million yuan,-80.51% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the depreciation of fixed assets. The construction project of Jiangyin transmission bearing project, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, was transferred to fixed assets and began to depreciate. Hengrun transmission has not yet formed a scale effect, and depreciation leads to a large loss of Hengrun transmission.
(2) by the end of September 2023, the construction of Hengrun shares decreased by 149 million yuan compared with that at the beginning of the year.
The company's sales / management / R & D expense rates in the third quarter of 2023 were + 0.34%, 1.30% and 1.60% respectively compared with the same period last year.
(3) We believe that Jiangyin transmission is a short-term phased adjustment, and 2024 is expected to be a sea breeze year.
Recently, the construction of multi-place sea breeze project has been speeded up. Jiangsu Guoneng Longyuan Sheyang 1GW sea breeze project has been approved, and the results of the 7GW sea breeze project in Guangdong Province have been publicized. Combined with the data of the National Energy Administration, we expect that the installed capacity of domestic sea breeze will be about 6GW in 2023. With the landing of multiple projects, it is expected to usher in the year of sea breeze in 2024, and the installation of sea breeze is expected to reach 13GW. Sea breeze demeanor restoration is expected to drive the company's flange business and bearing business to increase rapidly.
The positive layout calculus leases, under the ban, NVIDIA Corp GPU resources scarcity enhances. The main results are as follows: (1) the intelligent computing power scale of the company's overall planning in 2024 is more than 4000p, which can provide an excellent training power base for large model enterprises. Up to now, run six feet has completed the landing of 3000p in the first phase of Wuhu Intelligent Computing, and is continuing to expand the scale of the Intelligent Computing Center. (2) the US government forbids NVIDIA Corp to sell H800, A800, H100, A100, L40S and other cards to Chinese enterprises. with the outbreak of domestic demand for large model training and reasoning, NVIDIA Corp's scarcity of GPU highlights, run six feet rely on channel resources to establish card resource barriers, and in the context of supply and demand mismatch, the rental price is expected to rise.
Profit forecast: considering the downward short-term gross profit margin of wind power business, we slightly revise the profit forecast for 2023. At the same time, under the ban, the gross profit margin of computing leasing business is expected to increase significantly. We raise the profit forecast of 2024 for 2025. Qiming expects the company's operating income to be 26.0 / 49.7 / 7.1 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025 and 1.5 / 8.1 / 1.53 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025. The corresponding PE is 123 / 23 / 12 times respectively. Give 2024E earnings 35 times PE valuation, corresponding to the target price of 64 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the installed capacity of wind power is not as expected; the gap between supply and demand is not as expected.