Event: in the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 467.325 billion yuan, an increase of 17.70%, a net profit of 8.184 billion yuan, an increase of 21.94%, and a non-return net profit of 7.949 billion yuan, an increase of 20.36%.
The comments are as follows:
Q3's income accelerated in a single quarter, its net profit maintained a relatively rapid growth, and the growth of newly signed contracts in the first three quarters was steady.
On a quarterly basis, the revenue of 2023Q1, Q2 and Q3 increased by 22.39%, 11.00% and 23.20% respectively, and the net profit of homecoming increased by 25.77%, 20.49% and 15.24%, respectively. The deduction of non-return net profit increased by 27.23%, 21.72% and-1.81% respectively, mainly due to the non-recurrent loss of 145 million yuan per quarter of 2022Q3 (only 2 million yuan per quarter of 2023Q3), resulting in a higher base of non-return net profit of 2022Q3 in a single quarter. In terms of newly signed contracts, the newly signed contracts of the company from January to September 2023 totaled 981.93 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0 percent over the same period last year. Among the newly signed projects with more than 50 million yuan, housing construction, transportation and infrastructure, metallurgical engineering and other businesses signed 4805.6 yuan, 1469.9 yuan, 1154.4 yuan and 173.86 billion yuan respectively, + 3.1%,-3.7%,-4.8% and 29.7% respectively. Q3 new contracts signed by the company in a single quarter totaled 260.04 billion yuan, down 9.8% from the same period last year.
Gross profit margin decreased, net operating cash outflow increased, ROE increased. In terms of gross profit margin, the company's gross profit margin in the first three quarters of 2023 fell 0.39 pct to 9.22%, of which Q3 single-quarter gross profit margin also fell 1.23 pct to 9.12%, profitability declined. In terms of the period expense rate, during the first three quarters of 2023, the expense rate decreased by 0.04 pct to 5.17%, of which the sales expense rate decreased by 0.01 pct to 0.43%, the management expense rate decreased by 0.15 pct to 4.63%, and the financial expense rate increased by 0.12 pct to 0.11%.
In addition, in the first three quarters of 2023, the company's asset impairment + credit impairment loss was 4.014 billion yuan, up 0.78% from the same period last year, accounting for 31.64% of the company's total profit; the net investment loss was 805 million yuan, down 31.40% from the same period last year. Taken together, the net interest rate fell 0.01 pct to 2.25%. The net outflow of operating cash flow was 22.477 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 1332.05% over the first three quarters of 2022, with a net outflow of 1.57 billion yuan. The cash-to-cash ratio decreased by 16.40 pct to 74.54%, and the cash-to-cash ratio decreased by 12.66 pct to 78.91%. In addition, the company's weighted average ROE increased by 0.12 pct to 6.74% in the first three quarters of 2023.
The number of new overseas signatures increased by 33%, and Belt and Road Initiative focused on it. From January to September 2023, the company's newly signed overseas contracts totaled 32.82 billion yuan, an increase of 32.6 percent, an increase of 27.6 pct higher than the total amount of newly signed contracts. In 2023, the company further optimized the top-level design of overseas business focusing on "Belt and Road Initiative", defined the target market of "18-10", determined the working objectives of overseas business, and remolded the resplendence of MCC's overseas business. At present, the company's overseas institutions set up in the "Belt and Road Initiative" co-construction countries account for more than 60%, and the "Belt and Road Initiative" co-construction countries account for nearly 90% of the overseas projects under construction. The company will continue to promote the "Belt and Road Initiative" initiative as the leader, focus on iron and steel metallurgical capacity cooperation and major infrastructure projects, and accelerate the scale growth of the company's overseas business.
Profit forecast and rating. The company has sufficient orders on hand, sound performance, optimize the top-level design of overseas business in 2023, and the high increase in new overseas signatures brings growth points. we estimate that the company's EPS in 23-24 is 0.59,0.68 yuan respectively. As an industry leader, the company enjoys a certain leading effect, giving it a 23-year price-to-earnings ratio of 9-10 times, a reasonable value range of 5.35-5.95 yuan, and a "better than the market" rating.
Risk hint. Payback risk, policy risk, economic downturn risk.