Event
The company announces that it will report three quarters in 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.415 billion yuan (+ 6.71%), a net profit of 241 million yuan (+ 5.65%) and a non-return net profit of 231 million yuan (+ 3.78%). 23Q3, the total revenue of the company is 550 million yuan (+ 20.86%), the net profit is-15 million yuan (22Q3 is-14 million yuan), and the non-return net profit is-16 million yuan (22Q3 is-17 million yuan).
Q3 income growth of meals and other products has accelerated.
1) the growth of Q3 income from meals and other products has accelerated. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's income from zongzi, moon cakes, meals and other products was 18.81,1.55,1.13 and 218 million yuan respectively, which was + 10.58%,-13.32%, + 2.41% and-3.88% respectively compared with the same period last year. The income of 23Q3 zongzi, moon cakes, meals and other products is 2.99,1.55,0.42 and 38 million yuan respectively. Due to the post-placement of the Dragon Boat Festival in 23 years, the income and profits of some zongzi products are confirmed in Q3. The income growth rates of moon cakes, meals and other products are-13.26%, + 4.93% and + 6.67%, respectively. Affected by the post-Mid-Autumn Festival, some mooncake products this year are confirmed in Q4. The growth of meals and other products has accelerated compared with the first half of the year.
2) the growth rate of chain stores is fast, and the growth of dealers and e-commerce is steady. In the first three quarters of 2023, the revenue of the company's chain stores, e-commerce, Shang Chao, dealers and other channels was 2.99,7.88,2.71,8.80 and 128 million yuan respectively, which was + 27.50%, + 6.45%,-12.73%, + 11.65% and-10.21% respectively compared with the same period last year.
3) steady growth in all regions, with a net increase of 36 dealers in East China Q3. From a regional point of view, in the first three quarters of 2023, the growth rates in East China, North China, Central China, South China, Southwest, Northwest, Northeast and abroad were 8.80%, 7.00%, 2.31%, 7.15%, 12.87%, 14.52%, 16.15% and 8.87%, respectively. From the perspective of dealer expansion, 23Q3 has a net increase of 44 dealers, of which 36 are in East China.
The profitability is relatively stable, Q3 net interest rate is year on year + 0.33pct
1) the net interest rate is relatively stable. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's gross margin on sales / net profit margin was 38.57% / 9.96%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-0.50/-0.14pct. 23Q3, the company's sales gross profit margin / net profit margin is 28.67% Maximi 2.79%, year-on-year-0.03/+0.33pct.
2) the rate of Q3 expenses has decreased. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 18.78%, 5.76%, 0.84%, 0.15%, respectively, year-on-year + 0.02/+0.40/+0.22/-0.53pct.
23Q3, the company's sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is respectively year-on-year-0.43/-1.68/-0.44/-0.27pct, and part of zongzi's income is confirmed in Q3 to affect the denominator of expense rate; in terms of absolute value, sales / management expenses are respectively + 18.83% compared with the same period last year.
Investment suggestion
The company focuses on zongzi and other festival food, offline channel barriers are strong, zongzi brand potential is high, moon cakes, baking is promising. We estimate that the company's annual return net profit on 23-24-25 will be RMB 1.91 million, representing a growth rate of 38.65%, 27.14% and 28.23%, corresponding to the PE on October 26, 21-16-13 (market value 4 billion yuan), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
Food safety risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, rubbish category less than expected risk.