Event: the company released its three-quarter report in 2023, with revenue of 21.928 billion yuan in the first three quarters,-11.78% of the same period last year, and net profit of 934 million yuan,-80.98% of the same period last year. Of this total, Q3 achieved revenue of 8.318 billion yuan, year-on-year / month-on-month ratio + 10.07% bonus 18.17%, net profit of 325 million yuan, year-on-year / month-on-month ratio-74.21% debacle 104.40%.
Q3 performance month-on-month repair, phosphorus chemical demand gradually pick up:
From January to September this year, the company achieved revenue from glyphosate / fertilizer / specialty chemicals / organosilicon / food additives / phosphate rock / wet electronic chemicals / yellow phosphorus respectively.
31.15Universe 26.49Universe 16.87 14.23 RMB537Universe 458 million, of which the sales volume in the third quarter is-22%, 58%, 3%, 9%, 7%, 13%, 12%, 6%, respectively, and the revenue is-23%, 18%, 6%, 18%, 18%, 18%, 18%, 18%, 17%, respectively.
Sub-product point of view, glyphosate demand is still relatively flat, Bayer accident caused by the short-term price pull down to 2.9-30,000 yuan / ton, in the current supply and demand pattern is relatively reasonable price. The sales volume and income contribution of chemical fertilizer, yellow phosphorus and phosphate ore Q3 increased month-on-month, and the industry inventory was eliminated rapidly under the background of weak demand in June-July, but with the arrival of autumn fertilizer season, the demand for phosphorus chemical products gradually warmed up, and the purchasing mood of dealers relieved. While the company's product sales are smooth, profits are repaired at the same time. Although Q3 sales of wet electronic chemicals declined month-on-month, revenue increased; sales of specialty chemicals were relatively stable, and revenue contribution declined slightly.
Looking forward to the fourth quarter: phosphate rock prices are expected to rise slightly, downstream phosphate fertilizer demand in Southeast Asia + domestic winter storage demand ahead, start is expected to be high to maintain; supply side safety and environmental protection continues to be strict, and will enter the mine winter break at the end of the fourth quarter, supply may contract again. The short-term rise of phosphate rock prices and the continuation of medium-and long-term high prosperity, superimposing the current phosphate chemical industry chain product prices bottoming out and stabilizing, we are optimistic that the company in the industrial chain integration advantage, profit repair accompanied by the steady improvement of the hub.
The internationalization strategy and the transformation and upgrading of new materials and new energy are making steady progress. In September this year, the company announced that 100000 tons of the first phase of its 200000-ton iron phosphate project had been fully put into production. In October, the company acquired a 70% stake in Indonesia's Emok, which cultivates Indonesian paraquat and glyphosate. At present, the company is in an important stage of transformation and upgrading from traditional chemical industry to new materials and new energy, promoting a number of high-value products such as phosphating agent, silicone microcapsules and photovoltaic glue to be put into production at home; overseas, the company has acquired the first production enterprise, which is expected to gradually expand the company's influence in overseas markets.
Investment advice: according to the company's results in the first three quarters and the current product price difference, the main products are squeezed by weak demand and high upstream raw materials, and the profit is much lower than in the previous report. we will adjust the previous homing net profit forecast for the company in 2023-2025 from 34.97pm 42.20pm 4.965 billion to 1.400lb 21.4512541 million, and the corresponding PE is 15.1pm 9.9pm 8.3x respectively. According to the company's historical valuation, and taking into account the greater flexibility of performance repair next year, we give the company 15 times the target PE in 2024, corresponding to the target price of 28.95 yuan, maintaining a "strong push" rating.
Risk hint: project progress is not as expected; international oil prices fluctuate sharply; safety and environmental protection policy changes.