The pig price is low, the growth rate of pig seedlings is under pressure, and the pet sector has a good momentum of development, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Preco released its three-quarter report in 2023. In the first three quarters, the company realized revenue of 929 million yuan (+ 12.25%), net profit of 179 million yuan (+ 39.78%), revenue of 314 million yuan (adjusted-0.92%) and net profit of 62 million yuan (+ 22.82%). In the first three quarters, the company's sales / management / R & D / financial expenses changed year-on-year + 5%, 11%, 24%, 33% respectively. Expenditure on R & D continued to grow at a relatively high rate. Due to the increase in the net profit of the participating company and the withdrawal of investment projects, the company's investment income increased by 247% to 21 million yuan in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year.
In view of the fact that pig prices have been depressed for a long time, we downgrade our profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be 2.36 pound 3.40 pound 4.63 yuan (the original value is 2.76 pound 3.77 pound 508 million), the EPS will be 0.67 pound 0.96 pound 1.31 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 31.8 pound 22.2 million 16.2 times respectively. The company's non-plague vaccine is progressing smoothly, the traditional vaccine and chemical medicine sector is developing steadily, and the "buy" rating is maintained.
Pig price is depressed, pig seedling plate is relatively under pressure, chemical medicine plate growth rate is higher, the first three quarters of the company's biological products plate pig seedling income of 331 million yuan, yoy+8.89%, pig price downturn in the first three quarters, pig seedling growth rate is relatively under pressure. The income of poultry vaccine and antibody was 296 million yuan. In August, yoy+10.03%,2023 obtained trivalent inactivated vaccine against infectious rhinitis (type A HN3 strain + type B HN5 strain + type C SD3 strain), and the technical reserve was further consolidated. In addition, the income of ruminant vaccine increased by 890000 yuan in the biological products sector. Chemical sector, the company achieved revenue of 269 million yuan, yoy+19.69%, since the beginning of the year continued a high growth rate. In view of the relatively low pig prices, the industry animal insurance refund or deposit pressure, but the company's payback operation has not been significantly affected, the first three quarters of credit impairment losses decreased compared with the same period last year, the effect of strengthening the management of accounts receivable is good.
Pet plate has a good growth momentum, optimize and integrate the development of Xu Li
The pet sector of the company is growing rapidly, with revenue of 6.4 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 322% over the same period last year. The company has completed the equity acquisition of Luoyang Lejong Health Technology Co., Ltd. and Hip Chong (Shanghai) Network Technology Co., Ltd. the business layout of the pet sector has been further straightened out and integrated, and it is expected to continue to maintain the high growth of the sector in the future.
Risk tips: pig stock recovery is not as expected, industry competition is intensified, new products on the market is not as expected.