自产业务需求静待复苏，国际贸易业务开始复苏前三季度行业需求节奏调整导致自产业务需求较弱：前三季度受中期调整等方面影响公司自产元器件板块实现收入8.90 亿元，下滑29%，导致整体毛利率下降12.88pct 至31.58%，预计中期调整后将迎来快速恢复阶段；国际贸易板块,公司加强通过对新增并购公司的资源整合，积极开展新产品线及客户的培育工作，新增品牌的销售额增长弥补了部分消费类客户需求低迷的差额，且个别前期缩量的客户订单有所回升，前三季度国际贸易板块实现收入16.83 亿元，同比增长12.22%。费用端，研发费用增长28%，继续保持高强度投入，整体费用率水平提升3.06pct。The net profit of homecoming fell 59.32% in the first three quarters of 23 compared with the same period last year, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The company released its third quarterly report for 2023, with revenue of 2.714 billion yuan in the reporting period, down 4.32% from the same period last year, and net profit of 292 million yuan, down 59.32% from the same period last year. Of this total, 23Q3 achieved an income of 1.136 billion yuan, an increase of 29.69% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 38.35 million yuan, down 82.68% from the same period last year.
Due to the slowdown in the purchasing pace of downstream customers and the decline in the company's gross profit margin, we downgrade the company's profit forecast and expect the company to achieve a home net profit of RMB 4.34 million in 2023-2025 (the previous value is RMB 634), and the corresponding PE is 967 million yuan in 28-19-14. According to the consistent expectation of Wind, the 24-year average PE of the comparable company is 13x. Considering the large market space of the company's new materials business, the continuous improvement of the permeability and the clear second growth curve, the company is given the 24-year PE 22X, corresponding to a target price of 30.80RMB (the previous value is 34.50RMB), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The demand for self-produced business waits for recovery, and the international trade business begins to recover. The adjustment of industry demand rhythm in the first three quarters led to weak demand for self-produced business: in the first three quarters, the revenue of the company's self-produced components sector was affected by medium-term adjustment, which fell by 29%, resulting in a decline in overall gross profit margin of 12.88pct to 31.58%. It is expected that a rapid recovery phase will be ushered in after the medium-term adjustment. In the international trade sector, through the resource integration of new M & A companies, the company actively carried out the cultivation of new product lines and customers, and the sales growth of new brands made up for the sluggish demand of some consumer customers. and individual pre-shrinking customer orders rebounded, the international trade sector in the first three quarters achieved revenue of 1.683 billion yuan, an increase of 12.22% over the same period last year. On the cost side, R & D expenses increased by 28%, continued to maintain high-intensity investment, and the overall expense rate increased 3.06pct.
New materials business maintains high growth, and downstream permeability continues to increase.
The company's special high-performance new materials have outstanding advantages such as high temperature resistance, low density and excellent high temperature oxidation resistance, and can be used as a matrix to manufacture ceramic matrix composites. its application in aerospace and aviation hot-end structural components follows the trend of gradual development from low temperature to high temperature and from cold end to hot end parts. During the reporting period, the company has completed the construction of liquid PCS production line, and solid polycarbosilane products have cultivated a stable source of orders. In the first three quarters, the revenue of new materials business reached 137 million yuan, an increase of 113%, of which order revenue was 128 million yuan, an increase of 210% over the same period last year, accounting for a significant increase.
Layout of active power devices, smooth expansion of overseas markets
In the first half of the year, the company used its own capital of 174 million yuan to acquire 51% of Xiamen Core I through equity acquisition and capital increase. Its main business is the R & D, design and sales of semiconductor chips such as MOSFET, IGBT, analog IC and third-generation power devices. Downstream applications cover consumer electronics, industry and new energy vehicles and other market areas, which is conducive to the horizontal expansion of components and enhance the company's overall competitiveness. Since 2022, the company's trade business has made great efforts to distribute the Southeast Asian market, with overseas income of 107 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 133.68% over the same period last year, with remarkable results, effectively expanding the company's market space.
Risk tips: self-produced business orders are not as expected, product gross profit margin fluctuation risk.
