得邦照明前三季度营收yoy+1.57%，单Q3 营收yoy+4.06%，跑赢行业及可比公司：据海关数据，2023 年前九个月中国照明灯具出口累计额为325.86 亿美元，同比-4.72%；单Q3 中国照明灯具出口额为112.89 亿美元，同比-9.90%。立达信前三季度营收50.62 亿元，yoy-16.23%，单Q3 营收19.95 亿元，yoy-6.42%；阳光照明前三季度营收23.05 亿元，yoy-20.33%，单Q3 营收7.71 亿元，yoy-14.16%。得邦照明非经常收益达到0.33 亿元，而去年同期为0.25 亿元亏损，非经常性科目增厚了归母净利。The Company continued to explore overseas markets, with revenue growth outpacing the industry and comparable companies; the vehicle business developed steadily and won the designated project of Central China Magneti. Debang Lighting announced the third quarterly report of 2023, with operating income of RMB 3.643 billion yuan in the first three quarters, YOY+1.57%; net profit of 278 million yuan, YOY+26.22%; net profit of 245 million yuan deducted from non-parent, YOY-0.11%. Q3 single quarter revenue of 1.188 billion yuan, YOY+4.06%; net profit of 113 million yuan, YOY+76.52%; net profit of 80 million yuan deducted from non-parent, YOY-5.95%. Maintain overweight rating.
Support the main points of rating
The Company's general lighting export business outperformed the industry and comparable companies; non-recurring revenue thickened performance.
Debang Lighting's revenue yoy+1.57% in the first three quarters, single Q3 revenue yoy+4.06%, outperforming the industry and comparable companies: According to customs data, the cumulative export volume of China's lighting fixtures in the first nine months of 2023 was 32.586 billion US dollars,-4.72% year-on-year; single Q3 China lighting exports were 11.289 billion US dollars,-9.90% year-on-year. In the first three quarters of Lida Xin, revenue was 5.062 billion yuan, yoy-16.23%, single Q3 revenue was 1.995 billion yuan, yoy-6.42%; Sunshine Lighting's revenue in the first three quarters was 2.305 billion yuan, yoy-20.33%, single Q3 revenue was 771 million yuan, yoy-14.16%. Debang Lighting's non-recurring income reached 33 million yuan, compared with a loss of 25 million yuan in the same period last year, and non-recurring items increased the net profit attributable to the mother.
The vehicle business is developing steadily, and it is involved in the future of industrial investment or thickening income. The company's vehicle-mounted business has developed steadily. The company newly disclosed a fixed-point project to supply S311 headlight ECU for Central China Magneti. The project cycle is 3 years, and the total order amount of the whole life cycle is estimated to be about RMB 81 million yuan. At present, the company has established cooperative relations with Panasonic, Huayu Vision, Universal, Magneti and other brands. In August this year, the company and related party Hengdian Capital jointly invested to set up an industrial equity investment fund. According to the official website of the company, in October, the company invested in Kongxiang technology layout automobile electronics, and in the future or formed industrial synergy with the company's vehicle-mounted business to increase income.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering that the export market of general lighting has not recovered to the same period last year and overseas demand is weak, combined with the fact that the revenue and profit of the first three quarters of the company have not recovered to the level of the same period in 2021, the revenue and profit forecast are lowered. It is estimated that the revenue of the company from 2023 to 2025 will be 51/57/64 billion yuan, and the net profit will be 4/5/6 billion yuan, corresponding to PE 17x/14x/12x from 2023 to 2025, maintaining the overweight rating.
Main risks faced by rating
Raw material costs have risen sharply, overseas demand has been weak, and industry competition has intensified significantly.