The performance is higher than Huatai's expectations and maintains the "buy" rating.
Yingfeng Environment released three quarterly reports that in 2023, Q1-Q3 realized revenue of 8.99 billion yuan (yoy+6.79%), net profit of 603 million yuan (yoy+15.26%) and non-net profit of 544 million yuan (yoy+16.89%).
Among them, Q3 realized revenue of 2.858 billion yuan (yoy+3.91%,qoq-17.44%) and net profit of 230 million yuan (yoy+15.94%,qoq+6.21%), which was 12% higher than the upper limit of our forecast (Huatai expected:
1.85-205 million yuan). To maintain the profit forecast, we expect the company's EPS to be 0.23,0.29,0.35 yuan respectively from 2023 to 2025. Comparable company in 2023 Wind unanimously expected the average PE of 19.6 times, considering the company's leading position in sanitation equipment, give the company 25.5 times PE in 2023, the target price is 5.87 yuan (previous value 5.96 yuan), maintain the "buy" rating.
National road cleaning area and mechanization rate increased compared with the same period last year
On October 13, the Ministry of Housing and Construction released the Statistical Yearbook of Urban and Rural Construction in 2022. Data show that in 2022, the total investment in fixed assets in the construction of urban appearance and environmental sanitation facilities was 48.5 billion, down 33 percent from the same period last year.
The area of urban road cleaning and cleaning across the country increased to 13.9 billion square meters, an increase of 4.4 percent over the same period last year. The area of mechanized cleaning and cleaning of urban roads nationwide increased to 11.1 billion square meters, an increase of 6.9 percent over the same period last year, and the mechanization rate reached 79.7 percent, an increase of 1.8 percent over the same period last year. The clearance and transportation of municipal solid waste across the country was 311.5 million tons, down 1.6 percent from the same period last year. The number of public toilets nationwide was 41.9 million, an increase of 2.8% over the same period last year. The number of urban sanitation transfer vehicle equipment nationwide increased to 571000, an increase of 3.3% over the same period last year. Considering the vast market space of sanitation services in China, we believe that the company's leading advantages are obvious, and the business income of sanitation services is expected to continue to grow.
Sales of new energy equipment + 27% compared with the same period last year, far exceeding the growth rate of the industry.
According to the insurance data of the Bancassurance Regulatory Commission, in the first three quarters, 60000 sanitation vehicles were insured nationwide,-8% compared with the same period last year, and sales of new energy sanitation vehicles were 4023, with a penetration rate of 6.7%, an increase of 0.8% over the same period last year. Yingfeng environmental sanitation vehicles were insured 9008,-16% year-on-year, and sales of new energy sanitation vehicles were 1383, with a penetration rate of 15%, an increase of 5 percentage points over the same period last year. The company's high orders for new energy equipment are expected to drive future performance growth.
Risk tips: asset impairment and credit impairment exceed expectations, sanitation equipment sales are not as expected, and sanitation marketization process is not as expected.