share_log

浙能电力(600023):Q3利润亮眼 火电盈利改善显著

Zhejiang Electric Power (600023): Q3 profits are bright, thermal power profits have improved markedly

華泰證券 ·  Oct 27, 2023 00:00

The net profit of 3Q23 thermal power is + 4.8percent, and the net profit of return to the mother is the forecast median of 1-9M23 company's revenue / return to mother, which is 5.962 billion yuan, which is 1217.3% compared with the same period last year. The return to the mother is the median of the performance forecast of 52.47-6.678 billion yuan. 3Q23's revenue / return net profit is respectively + 11.3% to 277.77 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. We estimate that the 3Q23 thermal power net profit of the company is 6.2 points, which is 4.8 points higher than that of 2Q23. As of the close on October 27, the company's PB (LF) was less than 0.95x and the valuation was cost-effective. By raising the company's investment income, we estimate that the company's 2023-2025 return net profit will be 7.67 billion yuan (the previous value: 70.2 million), corresponding to EPS 0.62 billion yuan. Reference to the company's Wind consensus forecast 2023E PE average 10x, considering that 3Q23 thermal power profit improvement is more significant than comparable company and higher performance elasticity in 2023, give company 11x 2023E PE Target price 6.29 yuan (previous value: 5.75 yuan), maintain the "buy" rating.

3Q23 thermal power grid electricity year-on-year-5.7%, comprehensive grid electricity price + 0.9% 1-9M23, company grid power 114.26 billion kWh, year-on-year + 4.4%, of which coal power grid power is 110.4 billion kWh, + 5.5% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in electricity consumption of the whole society in Zhejiang Province.

3Q23, the company's thermal power grid power year-on-year-5.7% to 43.26 billion kWh, of which coal power grid power is 41.49 billion kWh,-4.1% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price of 1-9M23 company without tax is 0.438 yuan / kWh, + 0.46% compared with the same period last year, and the average 3Q23 tariff is still + 0.9% to 0.441 yuan / kWh.

3Q23 thermal power net profit reached 6.2 points, month-on-month significant increase of 4.8 points we estimate that 3Q23 holding thermal power net profit of 6.2 points, month-on-month increase of 4.8 points, mainly due to the company as a coastal thermal power, spot coal and imported coal proportion is high, fully benefit from the coal price decline; return to the parent level, 1-9M23/3Q23 thermal power net profit of 1.94.2 points respectively, of which 3Q23 improved 3.3 points. 3Q23, the company's investment income from the joint venture is + 18.7% to 1.371 billion yuan from the previous month, which we believe is mainly due to the improvement of the profit of participating in thermal power.

Target price 6.29 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating

We estimate that the 23-25 maternal net profit is 76.7 million yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 0.57 plus 0.62 PE, and a target price of 6.29 yuan for the company, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk hint: the coal price is lower than expected, and the feed-in electricity price is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment