The net profit of the first three quarters was-81% compared with the same period last year, and Q3 was-74% year-on-year / month-on-month + 104%. The "overweight" rating company released three-quarter results on October 27, with revenue of 21.9 billion yuan (yoy-12%), net profit of 930 million yuan (yoy-81%) and non-net profit of 880 million yuan (yoy-82%) in the first three quarters of 23.
Among them, Q3 has a revenue of 8.3 billion yuan (yoy+10%,qoq+18%) and a net profit of 330 million yuan (yoy-74%,qoq+104%). We expect the company's 23-25 net profit to return to the mother of 1.78 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS1.24/1.61/1.84 yuan, combined with the comparable company's 24-year Wind consensus expected average 8xPE, taking into account the growth of new projects, the consolidation of future scale advantages, and the enhancement of competitiveness of new materials, giving 24-year 13xPE with a target price of 20.93 yuan, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The phosphorus chemical industry and organosilicon boom are under pressure. In the first three quarters, the gross profit margin fell compared with the same period last year. In the first three quarters, phosphate rock / yellow phosphorus / fertilizer / glyphosate revenue yoy+87%/-53%/+6%/-61% to 9.3 shock 4.6 pound 3.11 billion yuan, sales yoy+59%/-41%/+29%/-10% to 149.5 and 1.9 shock 90 / 120000 tons. The average price is from yoy+17%/-20%/-18%/-57% to 0.06pm to 2.4cm / t, and the overall prosperity of phosphate fertilizer and glyphosate is weak. Silicone sector revenue yoy-52% to 1.69 billion yuan, sales yoy-20% to 142000 tons, the average price yoy-40% to 119,900 yuan / ton; Wet Electronics / specialty chemicals revenue yoy+7%/-32% to 54gamma 1.910 billion yuan, sales yoy+18%/+16% to 62,000,000 tons, the average price yoy-10%/-41% to 0.9max 1.0000 yuan / ton. The company's consolidated gross margin yoy-23.2pct to 13.1% Q3 gross margin yoy-19.8pct/qoq+1.5pct to 12.6% in the first three quarters.
The prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry has rebounded, and organosilicon is waiting for recovery.
According to Baichuan Yingfu, on October 27, the price of phosphate rock / yellow phosphorus / monoammonium / diammonium / glyphosate was 0.1amp 2.6cm / t, respectively. Compared with the end of September, the price of phosphate rock / yellow phosphorus / monoammonium / diammonium glyphosate / glyphosate is RMB 0.30,000 / ton, which is higher than that at the end of September + 0.6% picks up 2.7% picks up 2.9% picks up 0.2% picks up 1.0%. With the support of winter storage demand for phosphate fertilizer, the prosperity of phosphorus chemical products has warmed up. In terms of organosilicon, on October 27, the price of DMC/107 glue was 0% to 1.48 million yuan / ton compared with + 2% at the end of September, which is still relatively low in 21 years. Considering factors such as more new production capacity in the industry, we expect the plate to recover.
The product line continues to extend and the increment of new projects is approaching.
The company's new project is progressing steadily. According to the company's annual report of 23 years, 50,000 tons of photovoltaic glue was put into production in July, the pilot test of phosphating agent was completed in August, and the 5000 ton / year industrial plant design is being carried out. Hubei Ruijia 200,000 tons / year RTV project (phase I) entered the trial operation stage after it was completed in mid-July. During the year, the company's 5000 cubic meters / year aerogel felt project, Hubei Youxing 300,000 tons / year lithium iron phosphate first phase project, phosphate lithium fluoride industry 100,000 tons / year battery-grade lithium dihydrogen phosphate project have been steadily advanced.
Risk hint: downstream demand is lower than expected; new project schedule is not as expected.