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值得买(300785):毛利率同比下降 期待Q4旺季

Worth buying (300785): Gross margin declined year on year, looking forward to the Q4 peak season

國盛證券 ·  Oct 27, 2023 00:00

Event: according to the company's quarterly report for 2023, 2023Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 959 million yuan / year-on-year + 17.64%, net profit of 14 million yuan / year-on-year-46.53%, and non-return net profit of 3 million yuan / year-on-year-66.76%. In the third quarter, the company achieved an operating income of 282 million yuan / year-on-year + 34.96%, a net profit of-14 million yuan / year-on-year-331.13%, and a non-return net profit of-16 million yuan / year-on-year-2639.24%.

Gross profit margin fell compared with the same period last year, and the profit side was under pressure. 1) during the reporting period, the company's gross profit margin decreased compared with the same period last year, of which the gross profit margin in the third quarter was-9.9pct to 42.8%, or due to the increase in the proportion of new business and the decline in gross profit margin of each business. 2) the cost side is basically stable, but due to the recovery of revenue from the same period last year, the expense rate has decreased compared with the same period last year. The 2023Q3 sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate is 19.9%, 15.8%, 13.8%, respectively, year-on-year-3.2pct/-0.5pct/-0.9pct. 3) overall, due to the influence of the gross profit margin, the company achieved a net profit of-14 million yuan / year-on-year-331.13% in the reporting period, and deducted the non-return net profit of-16 million yuan / year-on-year-2639.24%.

The proportion of layout AIGC,MGC content increases, providing a new experience for users and creators. Since 2023, the company has continued to enrich the product form of structured content, and increased R & D investment in AIGC, algorithm optimization, risk control engine, low code development, etc., and the proportion of MGC content has increased. On the category side, we will launch a variety of vertical scene channels, including household appliances, computer digital, maternal and child care, etc., to help users deeply understand the subdivision of consumption scenarios and decision-making logic, and help to make efficient and deep consumption decisions. Take the commodity library as the bottom, and through the commodity library to structurally associate the consumption content such as articles and notes in the station, so as to improve the efficiency and accuracy of platform matching. And continue to launch activities around consumer hot spots to create a benign development of content community ecology. In addition, the company actively embraces artificial intelligence, based on platform-rich consumer content scenarios and massive consumption data accumulated over the past decade, reconstructs core products and operating processes through AIGC technology, improves operational efficiency, and hopes to create new growth.

Investment suggestion: as a platform with the advantages of users, content and word-of-mouth, the company deeply distributes the three core business sectors of consumer content, marketing services and consumer data, and constantly promotes the optimization and upgrading of products and content. We are optimistic about the company's ability to expand and iterate as the leader in the segment. It is estimated that in 2023-2025, the operating income will reach 1.407 billion / 1.618 billion / 1.808 billion, the net profit will reach 75 million / 121 million / 165 million, the corresponding EPS will be 0.6 PE 1.2 yuan per share, and the current price will be 36X/23X/17X respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk tips: 1) the expansion of new business is not as expected; 2) the recovery of the industry is not as expected or competition intensifies; 3) the policy change of e-commerce platform; 4) policy regulatory risks.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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