Fangzheng Securities (601901) 2023 Three Quarter Report Review: The potential ROE center is expected to gradually improve

華創證券 · Oct 27, 2023 00:00

事项：

方正证券发布2023 年三季报，营业总收入56.7 亿元（同比-4.0%），归母净利润19.4 亿元（同比-0.2%）。第三季度营收16.1 亿元（同比-11.8%），归母净利润5.0 亿元（同比-5.6%）。

评论：

市场景气度下行，经纪业务收入同比有所下滑。前三季度经纪业务收入24.9亿元（同比-9.0%），第三季度为7.8 亿元（同比-16.9%）。第三季度市场交投活跃度明显降低，股基成交额51.3 万亿元（同比-14.1%），考虑到基金市场规模持续下滑，经纪业务下滑幅度符合预期，推测市占率变化不大。

重资本业务规模明显增长，市占率提升。前三季度自营业务收入14.6 亿元（同比+37.8%），第三季度3.3 亿元（同比+110%）；前三季度重资本业务净收入（自营+利息净收入）25.9 亿元（同比+8.5%），第三季度6.5 亿元（同比+3.2%）。

从股混基及债基投资收益率来看，今年Q3 与去年Q3 市场景气度相近，公司自营收益率1.6%（同比+0.1pct），自营收益率符合预期。自营资产规模增长至995 亿元（同比+37.4%）。公司杠杆规模提升带来自营业务收入明显增长。

前三季度利息净收入11.3 亿元（同比-15%），第三季度3.3 亿元（同比-32%）。

公司两融业务规模305 亿元（同比+14%），两融市占率提升至1.91%（同比+0.18pct）。买入返售金融资产业务规模3.9 亿元（同比-10.2%），股质业务规模持续压降。

投行、资管业务收入有所下滑。前三季度投行业务收入1.9 亿元（同比-44%），第三季度为0.6 亿元（同比-47%），投行业务有一定周期性特征，加之第三季度投行业务周期放缓。资管业务收入1.4 亿元（同比-32%），第三季度为0.4亿元（同比-30.6%）。

投资建议：去年受益于高自营收益率及较高的市场交投活跃度，业绩基数高。

今年前三季度市场交投活跃度同比下滑，会有一些波动，属预期内。但可以看到ROE 长期中枢已经提升，自营资产规模快速增长，获客增长明显，若市场景气度回升，看好ROE 反弹。我们维持公司2023/2024/2025 年EPS 预期为0.33/0.41/0.49 元，BPS 分别为5.57/5.92/6.33 元，对应PB 分别为1.34/1.27/1.18倍，ROE 分别为5.89%/6.88%/7.77%。我们维持公司2023 年业绩1.5 倍PB 估值，对应目标价8.4 元，维持“推荐”评级。

风险提示：股东变动风险、经济下行压力加大、北上资金减持等

Items:

Founder Securities released its three-quarter report in 2023, with a total operating income of 5.67 billion yuan (year-on-year) and a net profit of 1.94 billion yuan (- 0.2%). The revenue in the third quarter was 1.61 billion yuan (- 11.8% compared with the same period last year), and the net profit was 500 million yuan (- 5.6% compared with the same period last year).

Comments:

The market boom is declining, and the brokerage business income has declined compared with the same period last year. Brokerage revenue in the first three quarters was 2.49 billion yuan (year-on-year-9.0%), compared with 780 million yuan in the third quarter (year-on-year-16.9%). The trading activity of the market decreased significantly in the third quarter, with a stock-based turnover of 51.3 trillion yuan (year-on-year-14.1%). Considering the continuous decline in the size of the fund market and the decline in brokerage business, it is speculated that the market share has not changed much.

The scale of heavy capital business has increased significantly, and the market share has increased. The self-operating business income in the first three quarters was 1.46 billion yuan (year-on-year + 37.8%), the third quarter was 330 million yuan (+ 110% year-on-year), and the net income of capital business in the first three quarters was 2.59 billion yuan (+ 8.5% year-on-year). 650 million yuan in the third quarter (+ 3.2% compared with the same period last year).

In terms of returns on equity and debt-based investments, the Q3 market this year is similar to that of last year, with 1.6 per cent of the company's proprietary return (year-on-year + 0.1pct), and the proprietary return is in line with expectations. The scale of proprietary assets increased to 99.5 billion yuan (year-on-year + 37.4%). The increase in the scale of corporate leverage has led to a significant increase in proprietary business income.

The net interest income in the first three quarters was 1.13 billion yuan (15% compared with the same period last year) and 330 million yuan in the third quarter (32% compared with the same period last year).

The business scale of the two financing companies is 30.5 billion yuan (+ 14% compared with the same period last year), and the market share of the two financing companies has increased to 1.91% (year-on-year + 0.18pct). The business scale of buying and reselling financial assets is 390 million yuan (- 10.2% compared with the same period last year), and the scale of stock quality business continues to decline.

Income from investment banking and asset management business has declined. Investment banking revenue in the first three quarters was 190 million yuan (year-on-year-44%), and in the third quarter it was 60 million yuan (year-on-year-47%). Investment banking business has certain cyclical characteristics, coupled with a slowdown in the investment banking business cycle in the third quarter. The income from the asset management business was 140 million yuan (- 32% compared with the same period last year), compared with 40 million yuan in the third quarter (- 30.6% from the same period last year).

Investment advice: last year, we benefited from high proprietary rate of return and high market trading activity, with a high performance base.

Market activity declined in the first three quarters of this year compared with the same period last year, and there will be some fluctuations, as expected. However, we can see that the long-term hub of ROE has been promoted, the scale of proprietary assets is growing rapidly, and the growth of customers is obvious. If the market boom picks up, we are optimistic that ROE will rebound. We maintain that the company's 2023, 2024, EPS is expected to be 0.33, 0.41, 0.49, 5.57, 5.92, 6.33, 1.34, 1.27, 1.18 and 7.77 percent, respectively, for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. The corresponding PB is 1.34, 1.27, and ROE is 5.89, 6.88, 7.77 respectively. We maintain the company's 2023 results 1.5 times PB valuation, corresponding to the target price of 8.4 yuan, maintain the "recommended" rating.

Risk hints: shareholder change risk, increasing downward pressure on the economy, northward capital reduction, etc.

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方正证券(601901)2023年三季报点评：ROE潜在中枢有望逐步提升

Fangzheng Securities (601901) 2023 Three Quarter Report Review: The potential ROE center is expected to gradually improve

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