Event description
On the evening of October 23, 2023, Meirui New Materials released its third quarter 2023 report that the company's operating income in the first three quarters was 1.117 billion yuan, down 4.24% from the same period last year, and its net profit was 69.4808 million yuan, down 14.17% from the same period last year. The operating income of 2023 Q3 was 398 million yuan, up 6.69% from the same period last year, down 0.75% from the previous month, and the net profit from the parent was 18.2444 million yuan, down 28.13% from the same period last year and 33.83% from the previous year.
The increase in cost affects the net interest rate, and the product structure continues to improve.
In 2023, the terminal consumption in the lower reaches of TPU is weak and the price is weak. According to Baichuan data, the price of TPU (shoes) 2023 Q3 is 15508 yuan / ton, down 0.01% from Q2 and 19.22% from the same period last year. The company's Q3 gross profit margin is 14.24%, month-on-month change-0.63pct.
However, the increase in the cost side affects the net interest rate. Q3 R & D expenses increased by 3.6667 million yuan compared with the previous month, and the financial expenses changed by 4.5343 million yuan. The increase in expenses affected the performance in the third quarter. Although the price of general-purpose TPU is weak, the company's TPU business mainly promotes high-end and differentiation, and has obvious advantages in innovation, research and development, as well as market response, especially high-end TPU such as expansive TPU and invisible cars and clothing, while the HDI being laid out by the company can also be used for high-end TPU production in the future to consolidate the scale of TPU business and product structure upgrading. In addition, the company is actively expanding its product range, and the projects of environmentally friendly adhesives and biodegradable materials such as PUR, PUD and PBS are promoted in an orderly manner. With the gradual increase in the proportion of high-end TPU business and the market promotion of new products, gross profit margin and profitability will continue to improve.
Polyurethane integration project accelerated to build the company's second growth curve the company's headquarters 200000 tons TPU integration project is in the equipment installation stage, the first phase of 100000 tons project is expected to be put into production in November 2023, when the company's total TPU production capacity will achieve a significant increase. The first phase of Henan Polyurethane Integration Project has completed the construction of some monomers and roads, and some equipment has been installed and is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2024. In the future, it is expected to become the first domestic manufacturer with the production capacity of HDI, CHDI and PPDI at the same time, the intermediates such as p-phenylenediamine and cyclohexane diamine can be sold out. Special isocyanate will complement the company's high-performance polyurethane new material products (such as high-performance foaming material ETPU, aliphatic ATPU, waterborne polyurethane PUD, etc.) to strengthen the integration of upstream and downstream high-end materials. With the commissioning of Yantai TPU integration project and Henan polyurethane integration project, the company's future performance and valuation are expected to achieve double-click.
Investment suggestion
With the commissioning of Henan polyurethane integration project, the company's performance is expected to achieve rapid growth from 2024, but due to the low TPU price in 2023, we downgrade the company's 2023 performance forecast. It is estimated that the company's homing net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be 1.06,3.74 and 686 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of-4.8%, 253.6% and 83.2% respectively. The current share price is 63, 18 and 10 times PE, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
(1) the risk that the project construction schedule is not as expected.
(2) the risk that the project approval progress is not as expected.
(3) the risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices.
(4) the risk of a sharp fall in product prices.