Event: according to the company's three-quarter report, 2023Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 1.127 billion yuan, an increase of 13.5% over the same period last year; net profit of 172 million yuan, an increase of 15.1% over the same period last year, and a net interest rate of 15.3%, up 0.22pct over the same period last year; realized deduction of 171 million yuan of non-return net profit, an increase of 19.8% over the same period last year, deducting 15.2% of non-return net interest rate, an increase of 0.8pct over the same period last year.
Downstream prosperity rebounded and profitability improved: 2023Q1-Q3 gross profit margin was 35.8%, an increase of 5.5pct over the same period last year.
During the period, the expense rate was 17%, an increase of 2.24pct over the same period last year. Among them, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates are 2.0%, 9.1%, 7.5%, 1.7%, respectively, and the year-on-year changes are-0.8pct/-0.4pct/-0.7pct/+4.2pct. The financial cost of 23Q1-Q3 is-19 million yuan. Affected by exchange rate fluctuations, the net exchange income decreased compared with the same period last year.
The mid-and high-end release membrane project is progressing smoothly, and customer verification is advancing in an orderly manner: the company's MLCC release membrane has achieved stable batch supply to Guoju, Huaxinke, Fenghua Hi-Tech, Sanhuan Group and other major customers, and the verification of high-quality products in the client has made some breakthroughs. Verification and small batch trials are also being carried out in an orderly manner as planned.
The market share of paper tape continues to increase, and the production expansion plan is advancing steadily: the company's paper belt market share is more than 60%, and it is currently in the process of continuous production expansion. The fifth electronic base paper production line will enter trial production in the fourth quarter of this year, with an annual production capacity of 28800 tons. In addition, the company's "annual output of 175000 tons of sheet electronic components thin packaging special paper belt, plastic belt project" that is, Jiangxi "return to the city to enter the park" project is also being implemented as planned, and the paper belt production capacity will be further increased after the project is put into production.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Jiemei Technology is the leader of domestic paper belt, and the three major business plates of paper belt and tape, plastic belt and release film support the company's rapid growth. The surge in demand for new energy vehicles and 5G technology applications and accelerated landing have led to the continued strengthening of the prosperity of the electronic information industry, and the company continues to expand production capacity. Taking into account the lower-than-expected demand for downstream passive components, we downgraded the 23-24 net profit to 2.63 / 431 million yuan (25.7% ash 11.0%), and the new 2025 net profit is forecast to be 602 million yuan, corresponding to PE of 43x, 26x and 19x, respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: the progress of production expansion is not as expected and the demand is not as expected.