Focusing on the photovoltaic industry, the technical layout is leading: 1) the integrated layout is deepened, and the technical advantage is remarkable: as a leading enterprise of the old backplane, the company has successively cut into the photovoltaic application system and N-type high-efficiency battery module industry from the backplane, and plans to layout upstream to further strengthen the anti-risk ability and promote the synergy resonance of the industrial chain. At the same time, the company is far superior to its peers in technology investment and patent layout, and has technical advantages; 2) all indicators are in the lead, and the three major products drive development: the company's products mainly include backplane, TOPCon battery modules and photovoltaic application systems, in which the gross profit margin of backplane and photovoltaic application system has a leading advantage in the industry.
Photovoltaic backplane leader, significant differentiation competitive advantage: 1) Photovoltaic prospect, the backplane industry market is vast: photovoltaic installation demand is strong, resulting in increased backplane demand, 22 years photovoltaic organic backplane market demand of about 891 million square meters, we expect 23-25 years will reach about 12.56x145545 square meters, 22-25 CAGR is 23%. Due to the demand of cost reduction and environmental protection, the market share of fluorinated backplane shows a downward trend; thanks to the increase in demand for double-sided power generation, transparent backplane and glass backplane are expected to further increase. 2) diversification of business layout to create differentiated competitive advantage: the FFC coated backplane developed by the company can effectively break the import monopoly and achieve raw material cost reduction, compared with the traditional composite backplane, the efficiency and security are higher, while the company arranges the transparent backplane in advance to better adapt to the trend of double-sided power generation, at present, the company's transparent backplane products have been well received by customers.
Deep ploughing TOPCon reduces cost and increases efficiency, technology iteration accelerates development: 1) N-type component substitution accelerates, TOPCon determines mainstream position: PERC efficiency is approaching the theoretical limit, and N-type new technology is urgently needed to break the situation. TOPCon determines the mainstream position by virtue of high conversion efficiency, excellent electrical performance parameters, low cost and broad room for efficiency improvement, and the permeability is accelerated. 2) the technical iteration path is clear, enabling TOPCon to reduce cost and increase efficiency: by the end of 23, the company's TOPCon battery capacity is expected to reach 19GW; in terms of improving efficiency and reducing cost, the company has established the technical iterative path from J-TOPCon1.0 to J-TOPCon3.0, and laid out 0BB low-temperature curing conductive adhesive to solve welding pain points.
Household photovoltaic forerunner, intelligent management helps to improve the level of specialization: 1) distributed photovoltaic installation continues to expand, and the growth space can be expected in the future: thanks to policy promotion, photovoltaic technology progress and demand growth, distributed photovoltaic installation has a strong momentum of development and a growing share, accounting for 58.5% of the new total installed capacity in 22 years. As the main form of distributed photovoltaic power generation, household photovoltaic is expected to benefit from the rapid development of distributed photovoltaic. 2) the change of business model improves the efficiency of capital utilization, and the whole life management service system enables intelligent operation and maintenance: the company's photovoltaic application system products are mainly for household use, supplemented by industry and commerce, in which household distributed business currently covers 23 provinces. at the same time, the company actively establishes strategic cooperation with large central state-owned enterprises on industrial and commercial distributed projects to supplement terminal photovoltaic application scenarios. In terms of business model, the company changed from credit mode to EPC mode in 2021, which greatly improved the capital turnover efficiency; in addition, the company also independently developed the Solar-Town power plant life cycle management service system, which effectively improved the professional level of power plant management.
Profit forecast and investment rating: based on the leading position of the company's backplane and the vigorous development of battery modules and photovoltaic applications, we estimate that the company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be RMB 5.96pm, an increase of 49% over the same period last year, compared with a year-on-year increase of 49%, 35%, and 18%, corresponding to an EPS of RMB 0.55max, 0.74 and 0.87. Considering the company's advantages in technology and cooperation, we give the company 15xPE in 2024, corresponding to the target price of 11.10 yuan, covering it for the first time and giving it an "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: increased competition in the industry, production capacity construction is not as expected, raw material prices rise.