Event: the company released its three-quarter report in 2023, with operating income of 350 million yuan, down 5% from the same period last year; net profit of shareholders belonging to the parent company was 30 million yuan, down 24.6% from the same period last year; and net profit after deduction was 20 million yuan, down 45.9% from the same period last year.
Affected by industry policies, the income of the main industry has declined. From a quarterly point of view, the company's 2023Q1/Q2/Q3 single-quarter income is 0.7 shock 1.7 / 120 million yuan respectively (+ 25% Universe 7.2% Universe 13.7%), and the single-quarter net profit of returning to the mother is 0.04 pesos, 0.25 amp 0.02 million yuan (+ 157% Compal 35% gamma 81%). The decline in revenue in the third quarter is mainly due to the influence of industry policies, while the decline in profit is mainly due to the increase in management fees, including the increase in share payment fees and the increase in R & D expenses. In terms of profitability, the company's Q1-3 gross profit margin in 2023 was 93% (+ 0.2pp) and net profit rate was 7.4% (- 3.5pp). The decline in net profit rate is similar to the above. The sales expense rate is 45.5% (- 0.04pp). The rate of management expenses during the company period is 16.5% (+ 4pp). The R & D expenditure rate is 22.8% (+ 3.9pp), and major companies increase their R & D investment.
Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is in clinical III phase and is expected to be available in 2025. The company's recombinant staphylococcus aureus vaccine clinical III phase has completed the first injection in August 2022, and the product is expected to be on the market in 2025. It is estimated that about 1.34 million people will be operated on closed fractures in China in 2030, and 80% of them will be vaccinated. After the products are put on the market, the company's performance will be increased rapidly. At the same time, the company's Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is expected to be exported to overseas markets as a global innovation in the future, strengthening the company's international influence.
The share of tetanus vaccine income is still high. From the point of view of products, the company's tetanus vaccine accounts for more than 80% of the income, and the company's tetanus vaccine achieves a stable dose in the trauma clinic, dog clinic and blood products enterprises, and the proportion of trauma channels continues to increase. At the same time, with the continuous promotion of the sales team and the further improvement of population vaccination awareness in 2023, we expect the company's tetanus vaccine to resume growth.
At the same time, the company's AC-Hib triple seedling application for production registration has been accepted, and it is expected that it will bring new performance increments after being approved next year.
Profit forecast and rating. We estimate that the 2023-2025 net profit will be 70 million yuan, 120 million yuan and 210 million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.16,0.29,0.52 yuan respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: sales may fall short of expectations; the risk of deterioration of the competition pattern; and the risk that the progress of the products under development is not as expected.