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科拓生物(300858)2023年三季报业绩点评:转型阵痛期 静待业绩拐点

Ketuo Biotech (300858) 2023 Third Quarter Report Performance Review: Waiting for an inflection point in performance during the painful period of transformation

Soochow ·  Oct 27, 2023 08:42

The company released the third quarterly report of 2023: in the first three quarters of 2023, the company realized operating income of 217 million yuan, year-on-year-17.9%; net profit of 72 million yuan,-16.9%; and non-return net profit of 61 million yuan,-19.6% of the same period last year. 23Q3 realized operating income of 77 million yuan, year-on-year-28.2%, net profit of 32 million yuan, year-on-year-24.3%, and non-return net profit of 29 million yuan,-26.29%. The performance was lower than expected.

23Q3 edible probiotics revenue is expected to grow month-on-month, compounding and other businesses are under pressure: the company has high technical barriers to probiotics and rich downstream customer resources. We expect 23Q3 edible probiotics revenue to grow by more than 30% year-on-year and more than 20% month-on-month compared with 23Q2. Mengniu normal temperature acid Jennifer is the core product downstream of the company's compound business. According to the channel survey, 23Q3 Jennifer continues to decline compared with the same period last year. Under the weak demand, we expect that the compounding revenue of 23Q3 Company will decline significantly compared with the same period last year. Taking into account the downstream pastures, pig farming enterprises operating pressure, we expect animal and plant microecological preparation business 23Q3 also under pressure, a further drag on the company's performance.

The product structure has been optimized and the profitability of 23Q3 has improved: 2023Q3's gross profit margin is 58.3%, year-on-year + 2.89pct, which we believe is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of revenue from food probiotics business with high gross margin.

2023Q3 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates are respectively year-on-year + 2.5/-1.2/+6.9/-6.7pct, we think that the increase in sales costs may be due to the company's increased channel construction efforts. Overall, 23Q3's parent net interest rate is 41.1%, year-on-year + 2.1pct, and the company's profitability is enhanced.

During the throes of strategic adjustment, strategic partners are expected to be empowered: in 23 years, the company's business focus has shifted from compound business to probiotic business, which is in the throes of strategic planning. After Sun Tiansong, the controller of the company's announcement, completed the equity transfer on October 20, the proportion of shares held by strategic partner Lin Wei reached 6.3927%. We expect that Lin Wei may participate in the management of the company in the future, and the company's marketing and sales capabilities are expected to improve. The company will enter a new stage of development.

Profit forecast and investment rating: considering that the company's 23Q3 performance is lower than expected, we downgrade the company's revenue forecast for 23-25 to RMB 327,000,000 (previously expected to be RMB 460,000,000), year-on-year-12%, 30%, 28%, and 23-25 year-on-year, net profit forecast for homing is reduced to 0.98 pound, 127,000, 169 million yuan (previously expected to be 1.29bp, 184pm, 251 million). Compared with the same period last year, the PE is-11%, 30%, 32%, respectively, and the corresponding rate is 53%, 41%, 31x, respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

Risk tips: sharp rise in raw material prices, intensified competition in the industry, less-than-expected recovery in consumption, high customer concentration, and lower-than-expected new customer development.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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