GETO NEW MATERIALS(300986):FIERCER COMPETITION; WATCH INTERNAL IMPROVEMENT COST REDUCTION AND EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT
GETO NEW MATERIALS(300986):FIERCER COMPETITION; WATCH INTERNAL IMPROVEMENT COST REDUCTION AND EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT
3Q23 results miss our expectations GETO New Materials announced its 3Q23 results: In 1-3Q23, revenuerose 22.30% YoY to Rmb1.59bn, while attributable net profit fell 99.74% YoY to Rmb329,740. In 3Q23, revenue rose 11.59% YoY to Rmb580mn, while attributable net profit fell 162.08% YoY to -Rmb35.21mn. The results missed our expectations, as 1) unit rental prices for aluminum formworks and protective platforms fell due to weak downstream demand and fiercer competition, and 2) the payment period of accounts receivable was extended, and the company made large bad debt provisions in 3Q23.
第三季度業績低於預期我們的預期Geto新材料公佈了第三季度業績：在第一至第三季度，收入同比下降22.30%，至15.9億元人民幣，可歸屬淨利潤同比下降99.74%，至人民幣329,740元。2013年第三季度營收同比增長11.59%至5.8億元人民幣，可歸屬淨利潤同比下降162.08%至-3521萬元人民幣。由於1)由於下游需求疲軟和競爭加劇導致鋁模板和防護平臺的單位租金價格下降，以及2)應收賬款的付款期限延長，以及公司在23季度計提了大量壞賬撥備，該結果低於我們的預期。
1) Aluminum formwork business under pressure. In 1-3Q23, weestimate that revenue of the company's aluminum formwork business grew about 10% YoY, slower than in 1H23, mainly due to 1) weak demand from the real estate industry's new starts in China, 2) slower aluminum formwork rental revenue growth, and 3) falling rental prices. Meanwhile, aluminum formwork sales also decelerated in some overseas markets due to overseas holidays.
1)鋁模板業務承壓。於23年1-3季度，我們估計公司鋁模板業務的收入同比增長約10%，較23年上半年放緩，主要原因是1)房地產行業中國新開工的需求疲軟，2)鋁模板租金收入增長放緩，3)租金價格下跌。與此同時，受海外節假日的影響，部分海外市場的鋁模銷售也有所放緩。
2) Climbing frames weighed heavily on the firm. The occupancy rate ofthe firm's climbing frame business dropped due to the new regulatory requirements for climbing frame products in Guangdong province's construction market. We estimate that revenue from the climbing frame business grew by mid-to-high single digits YoY in 1-3Q23. Meanwhile, depreciation costs and transportation costs to regions outside Guangdong rose. GM fell significantly, and profitability was under pressure. 3)Prefabricated concrete (PC) products performed well. In 1-3Q23, thePC product business maintained high growth thanks to capacity expansion and rising capacity utilization rate, and we estimate that its revenue should have doubled YoY.
2)攀爬架給公司帶來了沉重的壓力。由於廣東省建築市場對攀爬架產品的新監管要求，該公司攀爬架業務的入住率有所下降。我們估計，23財年第一季度至第三季度，攀爬架業務的收入同比增長了中高個位數。與此同時，折舊成本和前往廣東以外地區的運輸成本上升。通用汽車股價大幅下跌，盈利能力承壓。3)預製混凝土(PC)產品表現良好。23年1-3季度，由於產能擴張和產能利用率上升，PC產品業務保持高增長，我們估計其收入應該會同比增長一倍。
4) In 3Q23, GM fell QoQ, and expenses rose significantly, with netprofit turning negative. GM fell 8.2ppt QoQ to 20.1% (-12.7ppt YoY) in 3Q23 due to falling rental prices of aluminum formworks and high climbing frame costs. The blended expense ratio rose 4.7ppt YoY to 21.9%, with selling, G&A, R&D, and financial expense ratios rising 1.4ppt, 1.5ppt, 0.2ppt, and 1.6ppt YoY to 7.2%, 5.5%, 5.9%, and 3.4%. In 3Q23, credit impairment losses increased 89.2% YoY to Rmb29.71mn. This dragged 3Q23 net margin by 17ppt YoY to -6.1%.
4)23年第三季度，通用汽車QQ下降，支出大幅上升，NetProfit轉為負值。由於鋁模板租金下降和攀架成本較高，通用汽車在23季度季度環比下降8.2個百分點，至20.1%(同比-12.7個百分點)。混合費用比率同比上升4.7個百分點至21.9%，銷售、G&A、研發和財務費用比率同比上升1.4個百分點、1.5個百分點、0.2個百分點和1.6個百分點，分別為7.2%、5.5%、5.9%和3.4%。於2013年第三季度，信貸減值損失同比增長89.2%，至人民幣2971萬元。這拖累了23季度淨利潤率同比下降17個百分點，至-6.1%。
5) Cash flow was under pressure due to the market's tight capitalcondition. In 3Q23, accounts receivable rose Rmb148mn compared with 1H23 (up Rmb346mn from end-2022). As a result, the firm's cash-to- revenue ratio fell 7ppt YoY to 78% in 1-3Q23 (vs. 76% in 3Q23), and operating cash in 1-3Q23 was -Rmb225mn.
5)由於市場資金緊張，現金流面臨壓力。2013年第三季度，應收賬款較上半年增加1.48億元人民幣(較2022年底增加3.46億元人民幣)。因此，該公司的現金收入比率在23年1-3季度同比下降7個百分點至78%(23年3季度為76%)，23年1-3季度運營現金為-2.25億元人民幣。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Lots of companies exited the market amid falling prices; the firm isimproving its internal strengths. According to the report from China Construction Materials Rental Contractor Association, there were nearly 400 companies in the aluminum formwork industry as of 1H23, more than 200 fewer than in 2022. Meanwhile, the industry's aluminum formwork ownership fell 6.4% from the end of 2022 to 65.6mn sqm. As aluminum formwork prices remain low, we expect the exit of aluminum formwork companies to accelerate due to the high exit returns and high entry costs.
許多公司在價格下跌的情況下退出了市場；該公司正在增強其內部實力。根據中國建材租賃承包商協會的報告，截至2022年上半年，鋁模板行業有近400家公司，比2022年減少了200多家。與此同時，該行業的鋁模板擁有量比2022年底下降了6.4%，至6560萬平方米。由於鋁模板價格仍然較低，我們預計由於高退出回報和高進入成本，鋁模板公司的退出將會加速。
We expect the real estate industry's new starts to gradually recover and aluminum formwork orders to rebound. The firm is also improving its internal strengths and increasing efforts to improve production and sales processes to reduce costs and improve efficiency.
我們預計房地產行業的新開工將逐步復甦，鋁模板訂單將出現反彈。該公司還在增強其內部優勢，並加大力度改進生產和銷售流程，以降低成本和提高效率。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
As downstream demand and prices remain under pressure, we cut our 2023 and 2024 net profit forecasts 92% and 44% to Rmb11mn and Rmb118mn. The stock is trading at 31x 2024e P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM rating and considering that the industry has gradually bottomed out, we only cut our target price 20% to Rmb16.8 (35x 2024e P/E), implying 12% upside.
由於下游需求和價格仍面臨壓力，我們將2023年和2024年的淨利潤預期分別下調92%和44%，至1100萬元和1.18億元。該股目前的本益比為31倍，我們維持強於大盤的評級，考慮到該行業已逐漸觸底，我們僅將目標價下調20%，至16.8元人民幣(35x 2024E本益比)，這意味著12%的上行空間。
Risks
風險
Risks of intensifying competition; continued decline in demand; increasing bad debts from accounts receivable.
競爭加劇的風險；需求持續下降；應收賬款壞賬增加。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。