Event: the company released the three-quarter report of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 1.072 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, + 27.89% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 129 million yuan, + 49.97% compared with the same period last year. In the third quarter, the company realized operating income of 420 million yuan, + 54.79% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 52 million yuan, + 131.07% compared with the same period last year.
Main points of investment:
The profit of 23Q3 doubled and the gross profit margin showed an increasing trend. In the third quarter of 23 years, the company achieved a revenue of 420 million yuan and a net profit of 52 million yuan. In the first three quarters of 23 years, the company's gross profit margin was 28.33%, maintaining the annual gross profit margin growth trend of 21 and 22 years. According to the company's announcement, the gross profit margin of consumables is expected to reach 30-40%, and the equipment-end gross profit margin is about 15%. In addition, the company expects overseas revenue to account for 50% of total revenue in 2030. Overseas prices have been raised, and the overall gross profit margin is higher than that in China. We expect the overall gross margin to continue to grow in the future with the increase in the share of revenue from replacement consumables in the company's revenue structure and the increase in the share of overseas revenue.
The ability of cost control has been improved, and the investment in research and development has been continuously increased. As of 23Q3, the expense rate for the period of the company is 15.63%, year-on-year-0.98pct, and the cost control capability has been improved. Among them, R & D expenses are 53 million, + 51.43% year-on-year, and the proportion of total revenue of R & D expenses is 4.95%, which is higher than that of + 0.73pct. The company continues to invest heavily in R & D, as of 23H1 has invested nearly 2000 square meters of R & D test space, with more than 27 professional R & D laboratories, in line with a number of professional standards at home and abroad, the improvement of R & D capability continues to provide driving force for the development of the company.
Release production capacity at home and abroad at the same time and actively open up overseas markets. In terms of production capacity, the company has carried out the second phase of the Nanjing plant expansion project, which is part of the fund-raising project in China, which is expected to start production in 23Q4, and is expected to reach 1.5 times the current Nanjing factory capacity after delivery, supporting the demand for performance growth in the past 25 years. Overseas, the company's two new plants are also expected to be put into production by the end of the year, and overseas production capacity will be increased to 150 million yuan after expansion, in order to meet orders from overseas's growing semiconductor, photovoltaic, lithium, and other new energy industries. In June, 23, the company signed an investment and construction agreement with the Management Committee of Nanjing Jiangning Economic and technological Development Zone, obtaining 277300 square meters of construction land, and plans to speed up construction. After the completion of the project, it will help the company to further enhance its core competitiveness and open the ceiling for long-term development.
Profit forecast: we forecast that the operating income of the company from 2023 to 2025 is 14.14,19.61 and 2.418 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit from 2023 to 2025 is 1.84,2.60 and 322 million yuan respectively. It is estimated that the EPS from 2023 to 2025 is 1.37,1.93,2.39 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 26.02,18.43,14.88 times respectively. Combined with the situation of the company and comparable companies, the company will be valued at 30 times PE in 2023, with a target price of 41.04 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: downstream semiconductor industry volatility risk; capacity release risk that is lower than expected; technology upgrade iteration risk; and the risk that the public data used in the research report may lag behind or not be updated in a timely manner.