Main points of investment
Cofco released its quarterly report for the third quarter of 2023: the company's operating income in the first three quarters of 2023 was 1.417 billion yuan, down 12.38% from the same period last year; its net profit was 106 million yuan, up 10.97% from the same period last year; and its net profit was 93 million yuan after deducting it, up 4.14% from the same period last year. Of this total, the operating income in the third quarter was 408 million yuan, down 31.47% from the same period last year; the net profit was 24 million yuan, up 2.42% from the same period last year; and the net profit after deducting non-return was 19 million yuan, down 14.69% from the same period last year.
The company achieved operating income of 1.417 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, down 12.38% from the same period last year. From a quarterly point of view, the company's 2023Q1, Q2 and Q3 achieved operating income of 427 million yuan, 583 million yuan and 408 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 10.68%,-8.52% and-31.47%, respectively. The decline in revenue intensified in the third quarter alone, and we judged that it was mainly due to the fact that more revenue from project contracting business led to a higher base in the third quarter of last year, while according to the company's strategy, the overall engineering business shrank gradually; at the same time, affected by the slowdown in investment in fixed assets of downstream customers, equipment sales revenue declined compared with the same period last year.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved a comprehensive gross profit margin of 24.56%, up 5.51pct from a year earlier, and a net profit margin of 7.70%, an increase of 1.55pct over the same period last year. The increase in net interest rate is lower than that of gross profit margin, which is mainly due to the increase in the rate of R & D expenditure and the increase in the proportion of assets and credit impairment.
The company spent 194 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, accounting for 13.70% of the revenue end, an increase of 1.84pct over the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in the rate of R & D expenses. The net operating cash flow per share in the first three quarters of 2023 was-0.94 yuan, which was 0.49 yuan less than the same period last year.
Profit forecast and rating: we adjust our profit forecast for the company. It is estimated that the net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be 198 million yuan, 243 million yuan and 304 million yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the closing market value on October 26 will be 31.6,25.8,20.6 times respectively.
Risk tips: grain, oil and food industry fixed asset investment is lower than expected, cold chain logistics fixed asset investment is lower than expected, exchange rate fluctuation risk, new business development is not as expected risk.