Summary of the three quarterly reports: 1. Ping an Bank 1-3Q23 revenue year-on-year-7.7%, net profit + 8.1% year-on-year, interest income and non-interest drag together. 2. Net interest income in a single quarter is-5.9% month-on-quarter, interest spread is lower than the previous quarter, and both ends of assets and liabilities are a drag. On the asset side: the rate of return on interest-bearing assets fell 14bp to 4.53% month-on-month, and the loan interest rate fell 19bp to 5.33%, of which public loans rebounded by 5bp, personal loans decreased by 37bp, and assets were restructured. Bond investment yields fell 3bp, while interbank investment yields were flat on a month-on-month basis. Debt side: the interest payment rate of interest-bearing liabilities rose to 2.28% from the previous month, and the deposit interest rate rose to 2.10% from 1bp, of which the interest payment rate for public deposits rose from 1bp to 2.13%, and the interest payment rate for personal deposits increased to 2.36%, due to fixed periods. 3. Growth rate and structure of assets and liabilities:
Assets take the initiative to adjust their structure, and credit issuance slows down. Asset side: under the combined influence of internal asset restructuring and external economic pressure, Ping an Bank 3Q single-quarter new loans are generally sluggish, with an increase of 3.6 billion in the official quarter, 5.7 billion in the retail quarter, and 23.7 billion in bills. Debt side: the increase in deposits in a single quarter is lower than that in the same period last year, mainly due to a small increase in corporate deposits compared with the same period last year, while the increase in household deposits is about 1.5 times that in the same period last year. 4. The margin of income has improved, and agency insurance has continued to grow strongly. Net non-interest income fell 11.3 per cent year-on-year (VS1H23-7.1 per cent), and net other non-interest income growth was significantly dragged down to-28.0 per cent year-on-year (VS1H23-19.3 per cent).
5. Asset quality: there is an upward trend in the low rate of public malpractice, and the downside of bad credit cards supports the continuation of bad retail improvement.
Write-off efforts weakened in the third quarter, with a defect rate of 1.04%, a month-on-month increase in 1bp. Concern accounts for 1.77%, with a month-on-month increase in 3bp. The overdue rate was 1.43%, a month-on-month increase in 3bp. The provision coverage rate was 282.62%, down 8.89 percentage points from the previous month. The loan ratio is 2.94%, a month-on-month drop of 6bp. 6. The new mode of retail transformation drives the acceleration of operation:
The number of retail AUM and private customers continued to maintain double-digit growth; private AUM increased by 20.6% compared with the same period last year; mortgage loans continued to increase, while licensed mortgage loans remained high; the overall contribution of MGM was stable, and the high net worth of MGM contributed significantly.
Investment suggestion: company 2023E, 2024E, 2025E PB 0.50X/0.45X/0.40X; PE4.22X/3.96X/3.71X. The company practices its internal skills, optimizes its customer base and reduces its risk appetite during the economic downturn, and is expected to see the release of real asset quality dividends in 24 years. In addition, the company relies on group technology and integrated finance, which has obvious advantages in the development of public and retail business. in the medium to long term, it is expected to transform into a high-quality bank. It is suggested that investors should actively pay attention to the intensity of its transformation.
Note: based on the three-quarter reported results and the credit growth of Ping an Bank in the third quarter, we fine-tune our profit forecast that the net profit of homing in 2023-2012 is expected to be 48.7 billion, 51.8 billion and 55.1 billion (previous values are 51.2 billion, 55.5 billion and 59.7 billion).
Risk hint: the economic downturn is higher than expected, and the company's operation is not as expected.