The performance maintained rapid growth, the overall compliance with the forecast, and maintained the "buy" rating.
League of Nations shares released three quarterly reports, 2023 Q1-Q3 revenue of 37.264 billion yuan (yoy+47.61%), return to the mother net profit of 1.005 billion yuan (yoy+47.24%). Among them, Q3 realized revenue of 13.631 billion yuan (yoy+46.86%,qoq+30.11%) and net profit of 362 million yuan (yoy+41.77%,qoq-6.46%), which was in line with the previous forecast. Considering that the company's financing progress may be slower than we expected, we will reduce the company's EPS in 2023-2025 to 2.30Universe 3.31plus 4.59 yuan. Based on the company's own historical valuation level and future earnings growth expectations, we give 23-year PE 18X, the historical two-year PE average minus 1x standard deviation, the valuation discount is mainly due to the fact that the company's profit growth has slowed down compared with the history, corresponding to the target price of 41.40 yuan, maintaining "buy".
With the sustained development of various platforms, the better growth of the "10-10" e-commerce festival is expected to continue to help follow-up performance 23Q1-Q3 e-commerce deeply implement the "platform, science and technology, data" strategy, continue to implement positive and efficient upstream and downstream strategies, and maintain healthy growth. The company held the eighth "10.10" multi-industry e-commerce festival on October 10, 23. Cloud Factory, Cloud Cang and Cloud Logistics provided solid supply support for the event, and the scale of collection orders reached a record high on that day. The company's overall orders for Tuduo, Weiduo, paper, Boduo, Feiduo, Grain and Oil, Core, Medical equipment, Cold chain and Xinneng Duoduo reached 25.649 billion yuan, an increase of 48.9% over the same period last year. Orders are gradually digested or contribute to the growth of 23Q4 and subsequent quarterly results.
The overall gross profit margin remained stable, deducting the year-on-year growth rate of non-net profit in a single quarter to repair the company's overall gross profit margin of 5.25% in the first three quarters, slightly lower than the same period last year and maintaining a healthy level as a whole; 23Q3 gross profit margin of 5.77%, a slight decline in 0.31pct compared with the previous quarter. During this period, the expense rate maintained a continuous optimization trend, and the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates of 23Q3 were 0.50% 0.12% 0.49% 0.07%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-0.25pct/-0.15pct/-0.02pct/0.04pct.
Q3 net profit after deducting non-return in a single quarter increased by 55.95% over the same period last year (23Q2 is 30.66%), showing a healthy recovery compared with the month-on-month growth rate on the non-profit side.
Rich in data assets resources, promote the commercialization of data products, maintain "buy" according to the announcement, in the Internet information service and e-commerce service stage, the company has accumulated more than 10 million yellow pages, 5000 million standard letters and other related data and information resources. In 2023, the company has cooperated with the Northern Digital Institute to achieve basic work such as data rights determination and data asset pricing, laying the foundation for a more in-depth commercial data product launch in the future. In addition, the company's cloud factory construction, digital services and other industries Internet strategic innovation business continued to promote the second growth curve. We adjusted the company's 23-25-year EPS forecast to 2.30 PE18X 3.31 + 4.59 yuan (the previous value 2.40 + 3.66 + 5.33 yuan), gave 23-year PE18X, the historical two-year PE average minus 1x standard deviation (the previous PE 16x), corresponding to the target price of 41.40 yuan (the previous value is 38.40 yuan), and maintained the "buy".
Risk tips: vertical platform expansion is not as expected, customer transformation is not as expected, financing is not as expected, and so on.