Profitability continued to improve, driving Q3 home net profit up 45% year-on-year. According to the company's three-quarter report, the company's revenue / return net profit / non-return net profit in the first three quarters of 2023 was 72.08 million yuan (8.12 million yuan), which was-18.56 percent, 12.40 percent, 11.06 percent, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The revenue / return net profit / non-return net profit of 3Q23 in a single quarter is RMB 2.184 million, which is-17.06%, 44.74% and 41.0%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. We judge that Q3 company's revenue is under pressure or due to weak demand for small base stations, the year-on-year growth is mainly due to the improvement of profitability. We maintain the net profit forecast of 2023-2025 homing net profit of 10.931,000,000 yuan respectively. According to the consistent expectation of Wind, the average PE of the comparable company in 2023 is 30x. Considering the advantage of the layout of the whole industry chain, we give the company PE 32x in 2023 with a target price of 34.77yuan per share (the previous value is 39.15RMB / share) and maintain the "buy" rating.
The gross profit margin has increased significantly and the expense rate has been controlled steadily.
The company's comprehensive gross profit margin / net sales margin in the first three quarters of 2023 was 23.88% and 11.22% respectively, an increase of 5.21/3.18pct over the same period last year. We judge that the improvement of the company's gross profit margin is mainly due to the optimization of revenue structure. The control of expenses is stable. In the first three quarters, the company's sales / management (excluding R & D) / R & D / financial rate is + 5.50%, + 5.50%, 2.86%, 6.42%, 6.42% and 1.06%, respectively, compared with the same period last year, and the R & D investment remains high. We judge that the main reason is that the company continues to increase investment in new technologies and new products.
Perceptual business consolidate the leading position; overseas digital market continues to move forward and look forward to the future, the company is expected to consolidate the industry leading position of smart home sensors and new energy vehicle PTC heaters, anchor new energy and its upstream and downstream industrial chains, and drive the rapid growth of the company's perceived business income. In addition, in the field of optical communications, the company has vigorously promoted the data center business and successfully positioned the head Internet manufacturer resource pool. According to the company's report, the company's 800G series of products have been sent samples to the top Internet manufacturers, and actively promote the application of silicon technology, which is expected to enjoy the opportunity of global AI computing side investment in the future. In addition, on OFC 223 held in March, the company released 400GZR hand ZR plus Pro high output power version of coherent optical module, which has attracted the attention of the industry and is expected to become a new growth point of optical module business.
Maintain a "buy" rating
We maintain the net profit forecast of 2023-2025 homing net profit of 10.931,000,000 yuan respectively. According to the consistent expectation of Wind, the average PE of the comparable company in 2023 is 30x. Considering the advantage of the layout of the whole industry chain, we give the company PE 32x in 2023 with a target price of 34.77yuan per share (the previous value is 39.15RMB / share) and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the overseas market expansion of optical module is not as expected; the development of laser processing technology in intelligent manufacturing and new energy industry is not as expected; and the competition pattern of optical communication industry is deteriorating.