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华阳国际(002949):深耕城市更新 盈利能力持续改善

Huayang International (002949): Continued improvement in profitability through intensive urban renewal

華泰證券 ·  Oct 27, 2023 11:06

9M23 revenue / return net profit compared with the same period last year-18.7% 9M23 3.6%, maintain "buy" rating company 9M23 achieve revenue of 1.05 billion, year-on-year-18.7%, return-home net profit of 139 million, year-on-year-3.6%, basically in line with our expectations (130 million). Of this total, 23Q3's revenue / return net profit was 3.5 million, compared with 10.7% of the same period last year, which was mainly due to the company's initiative to shrink its low gross margin EPC business. We maintain the forecast of the company's 2023-2025 return net profit of 1690.215pm. Comparable to the company's 23-year Wind consensus expectation average 19xPE, we believe that as a housing design leader with rich experience in project design, leading BIM development and sufficient accumulation of data assets, the company is expected to be the first to benefit from AI empowerment and the transformation of villages in the city, giving the company 23 years of 20xPE, maintaining the target price of 17.24 yuan and maintaining the "buy" rating.

Comprehensive gross profit margin continues to improve and expenses during the period are strictly controlled.

9M23's gross profit margin is 31.9%, year-on-year + 2.0pct, mainly due to the company's continuous contraction of the project general contracting business with low gross profit margin, of which 23Q3's gross profit margin is 41.6%, compared with + 4.5/+7.1pct respectively. The expense rate of 9M23 during the period is 16.8%, year-on-year + 0.8pct, in which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is year-on-year + 0.02/+0.37/+0.39/+0.02pct. Under the condition of controlling the size of marketing and management personnel and strictly controlling the establishment of R & D projects, all expenses have decreased compared with the same period last year, but the expense rate has increased because the decrease is less than the income. 9M23 impairment accounts for 0.9% of revenue, year-on-year-1.0pct. The 9M23 homing net interest rate is 19.8% compared with the same period last year + 2.1pct to 13.2% and 2.1/+5.0pct.

The structure of assets and liabilities was optimized, and the cash flow improved compared with the same period last year.

Bills and accounts receivable-48 million yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in bill payback, the extension of the contract settlement cycle led to contract assets + 34 million yuan, notes payable and accounts payable + 16 million yuan, and contract liabilities + 133 million yuan compared with the same period last year. It is mainly due to the increase in advance accounts formed by the company's newly signed contract deposit and design schedule collection. The net operating cash of 9M23 was-30 million, 58 million less than the same period last year, mainly due to a significant increase in receipt and payment, with a cash ratio of 95.5% and 37.4% compared with the same period last year + 11.1/+2.6pct.

Deep ploughing urban renewal is expected to benefit from the transformation of urban villages, BIM development pioneers actively expand artificial intelligence urban villages are expected to stack indemnificatory apartment construction to become one of the important players for stable growth, the company is located in South China with abundant demand, and has obvious first-mover advantages, it is expected to be the first to benefit and gain greater flexibility. The company has participated in urban village reconstruction projects throughout the country, such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Hefei, Changsha and other major projects such as indemnificatory apartment design above the winning car base this year, and has established strategic cooperation with Shenzhen Metro Group and Shenzhen Talent safe Housing Group. Leading in digital transformation, the company has launched BIM research since 2008, participated in the formulation of 17 relevant national and Shenzhen standards and 10 special research projects, and launched the iBIM platform V5.07. At the same time, jointly with Zhongwang Software (688083 CH) to actively promote the commercialization of BIM software, actively accelerate artificial intelligence technology research and development and iteration.

Risk hint: investment in municipal infrastructure or real estate has slowed sharply, and human efficiency has improved more slowly than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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