渠道优势助力批发业务持续发展：2023 年前三季度，批发业务实现收入127.23 亿元，同比增长9.81%，营收占比为81.74%；批发业务实现归母净利润4.28 亿元，同比增长13%，归母净利润占比为63.47%。公司凭借渠道优势和器械耗材SPD 等供应链增值服务，推动创新药、以及器械耗材的引进推广。Event: In the first three quarters of 2023, Liuyao Group realized revenue of 15.617 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.80%; net profit attributable to parent was 675 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.26%.
Q3 steady growth, gross profit rate continued to improve: the company Q3 realized operating income of 5.273 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.02%; realized net profit of 232 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 12.32%. In the first three quarters of 2023, the gross profit margin was 11.91%, 0.8% higher than that of the same period last year.
Rapid development of industrial sector: In the first three quarters of 2023, the industrial sector realized revenue of RMB 768 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 51.37%, accounting for 4.93% of revenue; the industrial sector realized net profit of RMB 133 million yuan, accounting for 19.71% of net profit. The Company accelerated the further expansion of industrial products in the hospital and retail markets in the region, and the production capacity and sales scale of Chinese herbal pieces continued to increase. Traditional Chinese medicine formula granules continue to speed up the layout of medical institutions in the region, and actively carry out provincial standard filing in Guangdong, Sichuan, Chongqing and other places.
Channel advantages help the continuous development of wholesale business: in the first three quarters of 2023, wholesale business realized revenue of 12.723 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.81%, accounting for 81.74% of revenue; wholesale business realized net profit of 428 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, accounting for 63.47% of net profit attributable to mother. The company relies on channel advantages and supply chain value-added services such as SPD to promote the introduction and promotion of innovative drugs and device consumables.
Retail business operation capacity enhancement: In the first three quarters of 2023, retail business realized revenue of 2.056 billion yuan, down 1.21% year-on-year, accounting for 13.21% of revenue; net profit attributable to parent was 109 million yuan, up 16.09% year-on-year, accounting for 16.09% of net profit attributable to parent. The Company optimized the product structure of retail end, strengthened the control of operating costs, and realized the profit improvement of retail business.
Investment advice: Wholesale business remains stable, industrial business develops rapidly. We expect the company to achieve operating income of CNY 211.25/234.76/260.70 billion from 2023 to 2025, and net profit attributable to parent company of CNY 8.04/9.45/11.08 billion.
The corresponding PE is 8.51/7.25/6.18 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the price reduction of concentrated procurement of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules exceeds expectations; the risk of changes in industry policies; the expansion of industrial business is less than expected.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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