Event: according to the company's quarterly report for 2023, 23Q1-Q3 achieved 4.386 billion yuan in revenue, + 0.58% year-on-year, and 251 million yuan in net profit, + 45.78% in the same period last year. 2023Q3 achieved revenue of 1.526 billion yuan, year-on-year + 2.89%, month-on-month + 6.54%; net profit 68 million yuan, + 10.78% year-on-year, month-on-month-30.17%, performance in line with expectations.
The company's performance grew steadily, and its profitability improved steadily in the first three quarters of 23 years. 23Q1-Q3 's comprehensive gross profit margin and net profit margin are 18.94% and 5.79%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. + 4.09pctUniverse 1.79pctash 23Q3, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin and net profit margin are 16.65%, 4.52%, + 0.12pct/+0.36pct, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The fluctuation of raw material prices in the past 23 years is relatively stable, which ensures the profitability of the company.
Sales of wind power spindle have increased steadily, and the transformation of wind turbine technical route is conducive to spindle shipment. Under the pressure of cost reduction, the mainstream technical route of onshore fan is gradually changed to doubly-fed machine, and the technical route of offshore fan is iterated towards semi-direct drive motor. Wind power spindle is an important part of doubly-fed and semi-direct drive machines. Wind turbine technology changes will bring increment to wind power spindle. As a leading enterprise of wind power spindle, the company is expected to benefit. 23H1 sells 2900 wind spindles.
Wind power installation is expected to start, and capacity expansion is expected to thicken the company's profits. According to the data of the National Energy Administration, China has installed new wind power 33.48GW from January to September in 23 years, an increase of 74% over the same period last year. Due to the slow approval progress of sea breeze projects in Jiangsu and Guangdong and waterway control and other factors, the new installation of sea breeze in 23 years is lower than expected, and the multi-sea breeze project is expected to start in 24-25 years. The company's 70,000-ton heavy die forging press and supporting facilities are expected to be put into production by the end of the 24th, which can save costs while ensuring product quality, and is expected to increase the company's revenue and profitability.
Investment advice: due to the lower-than-expected installed capacity of wind power in 23, and the company's performance affected by the decline in downstream demand, we slightly downgrade our profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's return net profit in 23-25 will be 3.51 million yuan, an increase of 42.7%, 45.1% and 39.2%, respectively, corresponding to EPS0.09/0.13/0.18 yuan, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, wind power industry fluctuation risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, etc.