The company realized deduction of 180 million yuan in non-return net profit in the third quarter, down 32.8% from the same period last year. The company released three-quarter report for 23 years. In the first three quarters, the company realized income / return net profit of 4877 million yuan, 17.21% compared with the same period last year, and 566 million yuan in non-return net profit in the first three quarters, which was-45.77% in the same period last year. Among them, Q3 realized income / return net profit of 1.669 billion yuan in a single quarter, + 3.09% Universe 21.65% compared with the same period last year, deducting non-return net profit of 180 million yuan,-32.80% compared with the same period last year.
The sales volume of the main cement industry is growing against the trend, and the decline in prices is a drag on income.
From January to September, the company achieved 12.23 million tons of cement / clinker sales, + 13% and 8% respectively over the same period last year, including 5.87 million tons of cement clinker sales in the third quarter, which was + 1.91% compared with the same period last year, mainly driven by the new production capacity of the southwest subsidiary. Affected by the relatively low demand in the industry, the average price of cement / clinker per ton of cement / clinker is-16.59% and 19.58% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the decline in prices is a drag on income. Recently, cement prices in East China began to rise in the second round. We judge that Q4 profits may improve month on month. We believe that due to infrastructure investment and the transformation of urban villages, 24-year cement demand is expected to enter the upward channel. As of 23H1, the company has an annual production capacity of about 2170 million tons of cement / clinker, more than 60% of the income contributed by the cement sector, and the main business position is still relatively stable.
Aggregate sales have declined slightly, and new energy and environmental protection business has continued to advance.
The company continues to promote the "one main body and two wings" development strategy of cement building materials main industry + aggregate environmental protection logistics industry extension + new economic investment. 1) aggregate business: affected by market demand, 10.49 million tons of sand and aggregate were sold in the first three quarters, down 16.35% from the same period last year. 2) coordinated disposal of environmental protection business: revenue reached 173 million yuan in the first three quarters, up 10.9% over the same period last year. 3) New energy business: the photovoltaic projects that have been put into operation have achieved a total of 408.54 million degrees of green power generation, and the first user-side energy storage power station was put into trial operation in August. The second batch of photovoltaic projects in Inner Mongolia, Yingshang, Tongling, Duyun and other photovoltaic projects are scheduled to be put into operation by the end of the year. 4) New economy equity investment business: continue to invest in high-quality targets in semiconductors, new energy and related industrial chains supported by the state, and increase equity investment in Sheng Hejing Micro and other projects in the first half of the year. The company's stock and securities investment income and fair value change income totaled 192 million yuan in the first three quarters.
The development of "one main body and two wings" is expected to maintain the "buy" rating.
We believe that next year, the cement demand side is expected to form a resonance situation of infrastructure plus real estate, and the profits of the main industry are expected to pick up. At the same time, new energy businesses such as environmental protection, equity investment in new economy industries and photovoltaic power generation are expected to contribute to the increment, and the development of "one main body and two wings" is expected. In view of the large decline in cement prices, the 23-25 net profit of the company was lowered to 1101,280 million yuan (the previous value was 1.53 billion yuan). With reference to the valuation of comparable companies, it was given a 24-year 10-fold target PE with a target price of 11.30 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: cement demand is not as expected, peak season prices are not as expected, coal costs are rising, and so on.