Core ideas:
The overall performance declined slightly, in line with expectations. The company disclosed that the revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 was 14.871 billion yuan,-3% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 6.402 billion yuan, + 2% compared with the same period last year.
Weighted ROE is 5.82%, year-on-year-0.05pct-Q3 revenue-13%, return to the mother net profit-16% year-on-year. The total assets of Q3 company are 624 billion yuan, + 7.1% compared with the same period last year; the leverage ratio of removing agent money is 4.31 times, which is 0.06% higher than the same period last year.
Trading contraction and the downward market drag on performance, Q3 investment banking business rebounded against the trend. 1. Investment + fair change Q3 is 1.2 billion yuan, year-on-year-39%, the first three quarters compared with the same period last year + 1%; the company increased sound and non-directional investment, 23Q3 debt investment and other debt investment totaled 63.1 billion yuan, year-on-year + 23%; accounts payable + 41% year-on-year. 2. The average daily trading volume of Q3 in the whole market is-13% compared with the same period last year. The net income of Q3 in a single quarter is 1.35 billion yuan,-20% compared with the same period last year; and the net income of brokerage business in the first three quarters is 4.3 billion yuan,-14% compared with the same period last year. 3. The net income of Q3 asset management in a single quarter is 177 million yuan,-12.5% compared with the same period last year, with a continuous decline. According to wind data, the non-stock scale of Q3 joint venture Boshi Fund / China Merchants Fund is-11.7% and 5.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. 4. The net income of investment banking business in a single quarter was 299 million yuan, + 4.4% compared with the same period last year, while the net income of investment banking business in the first three quarters was 746 million yuan,-32% year-on-year. According to wind release date data, 23Q3 market equity financing of 276.1 billion yuan, year-on-year-45%, the company equity underwriting 6.9 billion yuan,-14% year-on-year. 5.Q3 's net interest income was 370 million yuan,-30% year-on-year, and 1.307 billion yuan in the first three quarters, + 45% year-on-year. At the end of September, the balance of the two funds in the market was 1.5909 trillion yuan, + 3% compared with the same period last year. 6. The profit of the futures business picked up, and the net income of other businesses reached 144 million yuan in the first three quarters, + 121% of the same period last year.
Profit forecast and investment advice: large comprehensive securities firms with deep shareholder resources, light asset business is resilient, short-term fluctuations do not change resource accumulation and head endowment. The company accelerates the transformation of non-directional investment, the advantage of institutionalization is expected to be further prominent, and the pan-wealth management business is expected to pick up gradually.
It is estimated that the company's net assets per share will be 12.53,13.77 yuan from 2023 to 2024. The valuation center of 1.1X-2.0XPB in the past five years has given the company a 23-year 1.40xPB valuation, with a fair value of HK $17.54 per share. Considering the premium on An and H shares, it has given H shares HK $8.06a per share, maintaining the "buy" rating of An and H shares. (press HKDCNY=0.94).
Risk tips: the economy is not as expected, the market fluctuates sharply, stock quality management credit risk, interest rate risk and so on.