Core ideas:
The company's 23Q3 performance is in line with expectations. According to the financial report, the company's 23-year Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 121.56 billion yuan, + 7.3% year-on-year, and net profit of 4.74 billion yuan,-2.8%, deducting 4.14 billion yuan of non-return net profit, and-2.9% of the same period last year. Among them, the company's 23-year Q3 achieved operating income of 44.59 billion yuan, year-on-year + 0.1%, month-on-month + 11.0%. The net profit before and after deducting non-return was 1.90 billion yuan, 1.75 billion yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year. 22.3%, respectively. In 23 years, the output growth rates of Q3 passenger car industry and SAIC were + 14.6% and + 11.6% respectively, and the company's revenue and performance were in line with expectations.
The internal management efficiency of the company continues to improve. The company's 23-year Q3 gross profit margin, net profit rate and period expense rate are 12.3, 4.7 and 8.7% respectively, year-on-year-1.7/-1.1/-0.5pct and month-on-month, respectively. Among them, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate of 23Q3 company is 0.7%, 4.1%, 3.7%, 0.2%, + 0.1/-0.2/-0.9/+0.5pct, respectively, and the internal management ability of the company continues to improve.
Continue to promote independent and controllable development, continuous optimization of customer structure. In recent years, the company is committed to independent control at the same time, the implementation of "advance and retreat" strategy to optimize and strengthen the core business. The company adheres to the "neutral" strategy, and the customer structure is continuously optimized. According to the China News, in 2023, 55.38% of the company's main business income under the H1 summary caliber came from vehicle customers outside SAIC. By the end of June 23, in the company's newly acquired business life cycle orders, the proportion of new energy vehicle-related models has been increasing, which has exceeded 60%. The company continues to optimize the customer structure and product structure to expand new growth space for the sustainable development of the business.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company has excellent profits and dividends in the past, and its future development strategy is clear, gradually forming an independent and controllable "intelligent cockpit" capability and a strong domestic "smart chassis" structure. at the same time, we will actively explore new energy and smart driving areas to provide new momentum for the company's development.
We expect EPS to 2.62 yuan per share in 24-25, and we maintain the company's fair value of 32.54 yuan per share and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the prosperity of the industry is declining; the supply of core components is limited; the competition in the industry is intensified.