Event: the company publishes its third quarter 2023 report. 2023Q1-Q3 realized revenue of 1.133 billion yuan (YOY17.64%) and net profit of 92.51 million yuan (YOY9.64%). Among them, 23Q3 achieved revenue of 432 million yuan (YOY30.57%) and net profit of 27.17 million yuan (YOY-28.68%).
Revenue grew rapidly in the third quarter alone, and profits were under pressure. From the 23Q1-Q3 point of view, the gross profit margin is up 17.64% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin is up 0.60pct, so the gross profit margin is up 19.27% over the same period last year. On the expense side, the expense rate decreased 1.21pct compared with the same period last year (mainly because the sales expense rate decreased 0.37pct compared with the same period last year, the management expense rate (including R & D expenses) decreased 0.44pct, and the financial expense rate decreased 0.39pct), so the homing net profit margin decreased 0.60pct compared with the same period last year, corresponding to the final homing net profit of 92.51 million yuan (YOY9.64%).
23Q3 alone, revenue gross profit end, the company's revenue increased by 30.57% year-on-year, gross profit margin increased by 2.22pct, so gross profit increased by 37.16% year-on-year. In addition, during the period, the expense rate increased 5.01pct compared with the same period last year (mainly due to the increase in sales expense rate compared with the same period last year 5.88pct), so the homing net profit margin decreased 5.23pct compared with the same period last year, corresponding to the final homing net profit of 27.17 million yuan (YOY-28.68%).
To consolidate the advantages of Chunyan, new products such as oat + have become a new engine for growth. In the first half of 2023, the company gave full play to the advantages of the whole industry chain, made continuous breakthroughs in category innovation, continued to consolidate Chunyan's advantages and optimize the existing product structure, and actively promoted a series of new products such as organic big oats and oats +, in order to meet the diversified consumer needs of consumers and continue to show the competitive advantage of core differentiation of the company's products.
Continue to promote collaborative innovation of product channels and actively explore a new retail model of online and offline integration. (1) continuous deep ploughing of offline channels and further sinking of dominant areas. We will actively expand the penetration of key cities in the retail format, focusing on creating "millions of counties and thousands of provinces and regions", and the business will infiltrate into large and medium-sized chain stores, community township convenience stores, wholesale markets and other channels. establish a three-dimensional and comprehensive marketing network system. (2) attach great importance to the management and operation of online channels and create a product matrix in line with the characteristics of online channels and consumption habits. The company ensures the steady growth of sales through fine operation of B2C platforms such as JD.com and Pinduoduo and B2B platforms such as Beijing-Tokyo Xitong and BABA Retail. In addition, we have increased investment in new channels such as live e-commerce and content e-commerce, and established a cooperation mechanism with online celebrities and celebrities to embrace channel changes. (3) the company actively builds new retail channels to effectively promote channel innovation strategy by grasping the development opportunities of snack stores, community group buying, community convenience and fresh supermarkets.
Profit forecast and investment advice. We estimate that the operating income of the company from 2023 to 2025 will be 1.566 yuan 1.821 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit of returning to the mother will be 1.33 billion yuan 172 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.60 yuan 0.77 trillion yuan per share. Combined with the comparable company valuation, the company is given a PE valuation of 25-30 times in 2023, with a reasonable value range of 15.00-18.00 yuan per share, and continue to be given a "better than the market" rating.
Risk hint. (1) the risk of food safety, (2) the intensification of market competition, (3) the expansion of new products and new channels is not as expected.