收入保持快速增长，业绩阶段性承压。前三季度公司收入同比实现增长34.19%，主要是销售业务规模同比增加所致，其中5G 富媒体消息及国际云通信业务增收较快，营业收入分别同比增加97.64%和241.64%。但受宏观经济趋势及当期政策影响，云短信尤其是服务类短信业务量同比下降，同时为顺利完成5G 阅信的相关招募，公司主动控制相关流量，业务量有所减少，因此公司归母净利润出现阶段性承压，同比减少72.58%。Items:
On October 25, Dreamnet Technology released its third-quarter report of 2023. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 3.33 billion yuan, an increase of 34.19% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 5.1417 million yuan, down 72.58% from the same period last year.
Comments:
Income maintains rapid growth, and performance is under pressure periodically. In the first three quarters, the company's revenue increased by 34.19% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in the scale of sales business. Among them, 5G rich media news and international cloud communications business increased rapidly, and business revenue increased by 97.64% and 241.64%, respectively.
With the signing of important contracts, operators are expected to speed up the reading of letters for commercial users, providing support for the company's future performance growth. The signing of this agreement marks the landing of the final node of the business process of 5G reading products, which is of great significance for improving the construction of 5G message product matrix, promoting the ecological maturity of 5G message and mining the commercial value of 5G message. We believe that there is an urgent need for new SMS products to increase revenue due to the continuous pressure on the increase of operators' short message service income, the higher reading value of 5G than traditional SMS, and the higher recognition of downstream B-end customers. therefore, operators are expected to accelerate the commercial landing of 5G reading, and the company and China Mobile Limited have completed the signing of the cooperation agreement on 5G reading, and the growth of future performance is expected to get important support.
Deeply participate in Huawei news product cooperation, combined with Pangu model to build "AI+5G message". The company has established a profound cooperative relationship with Huawei on news products, and is deeply involved in the product development of Huawei Cloud's one-stop rich media messaging service KooMessage, which has won Huawei Cloud's "Industrial Innovation contribution Award", Huawei Terminal Cloud Service "Ecological Prosperity Award" and "Outstanding partner of the year Award". Some of the company's products have been adapted based on Hongmeng system, and will continue to deepen cooperation with Huawei. In addition, the company has signed a business cooperation framework agreement with Huawei Yunpan ancient model, combined with Huawei's Pangu model construction "AI+5G News", will integrate Huawei Cloud artificial intelligence message products, and further build AI shopping guide robot products and "brocade case" intelligent creation tools, and further explore the potential of the combination of messaging service scenarios.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating. Considering that the landing pace of operator 5G is slower than expected, we downgrade our 2023 forecast, and we expect the company's operating income to be 53.86,69.06 and 7.85 billion yuan respectively from 2023 to 2025, and the net profit belonging to the parent company is 1.01,4.85 and 664 million yuan respectively (the previous value is 2.15,4.82 and 635 million yuan), corresponding to EPS 0.13,0.60 and 0.82 yuan respectively, maintaining the "strong push" rating.
Risk hint: macroeconomic trends and policies are lower than expected, SMS prices of operators continue to rise, poor management leads to continuous provision of goodwill, provision for impairment of assets, and new business such as 5G letter reading is not as expected.
