The company is an excellent domestic manufacturer of precision functional parts, with significant advantages in product innovation and customer channels. Based on the excellent industrial chain experience accumulated by major customers, the company is expected to obtain more international customers' orders and share of orders, and continue to enhance the brand effect. The company has accelerated its entry into the carbon nanotube industry, and its products have entered the supply chain of partial power, energy storage and consumer battery manufacturing, which is expected to open the company's second growth curve.
It is estimated that the annual return net profit of the company in 2023-24-25 is 0.56 pound 1.13 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS forecast is 0.77 billion 2.55 yuan respectively. Comprehensive consideration of PE, PEG valuation method, according to 2023 55 times PE, give the company the target price of 43 yuan, the first coverage, given a "buy" rating.
Company profile: the leader of precision functional parts in our country. Gibbon Technology is a highly customized manufacturer of precision functional parts and structural components. At present, the terminal applications of the company's products include tablet computers, notebook computers, all-in-one computers, smart homes, 3D printing, drones and so on. The company's main business income mainly comes from precision functions and structural components, but the company has been involved in carbon nanotube business since 2020 to create a diversified business layout.
2023H1, the company achieved revenue of 327 million yuan, down 30.05% from the same period last year; the net profit returned to its mother was-10 million yuan, turning a loss over the same period last year.
Precision functional parts and structural components business: the consumer electronics industry is expected to improve marginally and deepen downstream cooperation to consolidate its leading position in the industry. Precision functional parts and structural components are the middle link of the consumer electronics industry chain. Demand for downstream consumer electronics, including tablets, computers and laptops, is expected to bottom out and enter a new growth cycle. Under the background of the gradual migration of the consumer electronics industry chain to Southeast Asia and South Asia, the establishment of an overseas production base in Vietnam will help to optimize the supply chain and improve supply efficiency. With the rapid development of downstream terminal industry, such as lightweight and flexible, the innovation of driving functional parts and structural parts is increasing. With the advantages of good R & D capability and capacity scale, the company continues to provide customers with high-quality products, which is helpful to bind the development of customers. Up to now, the company's products have entered consumer electronics brands such as Apple Inc, Alphabet Inc-CL C, Amazon.Com Inc and so on. The cooperation of international leading enterprises will help the company to develop stability and sustainability and enhance brand effect.
Carbon nanotube business: enter the field of lithium battery materials, open the company's second growth curve. Compared with traditional conductive agents such as carbon black, carbon nanotubes have advantages in conductivity and dosage, and it is expected that the mixed use will be a long-term trend. The demand for fast charging of lithium-ion batteries and the emergence of new negative electrodes such as silicon and carbon will increase the demand for carbon nanotube conductive agents to a certain extent. We estimate that the demand for carbon nanotubes will reach 31000 tons in 2025, and the CAGR will be 79.8% in 2021-2025. The corresponding demand for carbon nanotube slurry in 2025 will be 770000 tons. The company will continue to build new carbon nanotube production capacity and accelerate the carbon nanotube business with its excellent carbon nanotube research and development team. As the company's carbon nanotube products have been certified by battery manufacturers, especially new energy vehicle battery manufacturers, and gradually enter its supply chain, the company's carbon nanotube business revenue is expected to grow significantly, improving the company's earnings stability and sustainability.
Risk factors: the risk of slowing down or declining growth in the global consumer electronics market; the risk that the company's new capacity projects are not as expected; the risk of rising raw material prices; the risk of exchange rate fluctuations; the risk of production safety; the risk of intensified competition.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company is an excellent domestic manufacturer of precision functional parts, with significant advantages in product innovation and customer channels. Based on the excellent industrial chain experience accumulated by major customers, the company is expected to obtain more international customers' orders and share of orders, and continue to enhance the brand effect. The company has accelerated its entry into the carbon nanotube industry, and its products have entered the supply chain of partial power, energy storage and consumer battery manufacturing, which is expected to open a second growth curve. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company in 2023-24-25 will be 0.56 billion yuan (RMB), and the corresponding EPS will be 0.77max 1.56 billion yuan. The current stock price will correspond to 2023-2025 45-22-14 times PE. Considering the PE and PEG valuation methods (referring to the average valuation of comparable companies in the industry and taking into account the growth expectation of high growth), according to 55 times PE in 2023, the company will be given a target price of 43 yuan and covered for the first time. Give a "buy" rating.