On October 25, 2023, Ximai released its report for the first three quarters of 2023.

Main points of investment

The performance is in line with expectations, and the rate increase is a drag on profits.

The total revenue of 2023Q1-Q3 is 1.133 billion yuan (up 18%), and the net profit is 93 million yuan (10%), of which 2023Q3 revenue is 432 million yuan (31%) and net profit is 27 million yuan (29%). On the profit side, 2023Q1-Q3 gross profit margin is 44.11% (+ 1pct), net profit rate is 8.17% (- 1pct); 2023Q3 gross profit margin is 46.25% (+ 2pct), net profit rate is 6.29% (- 5pct). The increase in sales expense rate is a drag on net profit. On the expense side, the 2023Q3 sales expense rate is 33.44% (+ 6pct), the management expense rate is 5.23% (- 0.5pct), and the proportion of business tax and surcharge is 1% (- 0.1pct). On the cash flow side, the net cash flow of 2023Q1-Q3 operating activities is 120 million yuan (same as a decrease of 16%), and the net cash flow of 2023Q3 operating activities is 92 million yuan (same as a decrease of 5%). As of the end of 2023Q3, the contract liability was 45 million yuan (month-on-month + 51%).

The dominant position of oats is prominent, and the contribution of omni-channel is increased.

The company continues to consolidate and enhance the dominant position of hot oats, plans to expand the product matrix by arranging new products in cold and hot food, insists on deep ploughing of offline channels, and further sinks channels in advantageous areas. The continuous development of snack franchise stores, community group buying, community convenience, fresh supermarkets and other new retail channels have basically covered most snack franchise systems, and are expected to continue to bring more increments. Online, e-commerce, mainly Tmall and JD.com, has grown steadily, becoming the number one brand in the oat industry on many platforms, and its revenue contribution continues to rise.

Profit forecast

We are optimistic that the company, as the leader of domestic oats, continues to plough the field of oats and constantly carry out product innovation. According to the three quarterly reports, we adjust the EPS for 2023-2025 to 0.550.65max 0.78 (the previous value is 0.600.71), and the current share price corresponds to PE times 25-21-18, maintaining the "Buy" investment rating.

Risk hint

Macroeconomic downside risks, new product promotion is not as expected, cold food promotion is not as expected, merchant excess passenger flow is reduced, and so on.