Event: the company released its Triple report for 2023. 2023Q1-3, the company achieved revenue of 96 billion,-16.4% compared with the same period last year; realized net profit of 895 million yuan, + 14% year-on-year; after deducting non-recurrent items such as non-operating income and expenditure, non-net profit was 700 million yuan, + 2.7% of the same period last year. Corresponding to 2023Q3, the company's income is 31.6 billion yuan,-18% compared with the same period last year; the return net profit is 380 million yuan, + 15% year-on-year, and the deduction of non-net profit is 270 million yuan, + 3% year-on-year. The company's return net profit is in line with our expectations.
The business of the industrial chain has grown rapidly, and the company's profits have achieved rapid growth: the company's business is mainly composed of the supply chain and the industrial chain, of which the income from the supply chain is relatively high (78.5% of the income in 2022). The profit of industrial chain business is relatively high (57.6% of the total profit in 2022). The income of 2023Q1-3 company declined compared with the same period last year, while the return net profit increased compared with the same period last year, which means that the supply chain sector dominated by mechanical and electrical products has shrunk, while the industrial chain business based on large environmental protection, advanced manufacturing and large consumption has achieved rapid growth.
The change in the proportion of business structure has led to an increase in the company's profit margin and expense rate: 2023Q3, the company's gross profit margin is 5.63%, year-on-year + 1.12pct; sales net profit rate is 3.03%, year-on-year + 0.80pct.
As a result of the company's union shareholding system, the profit and loss of minority shareholders accounts for about 60% of the net profit of sales. 2023Q3 the net profit margin of the company is 1.21%, which is + 0.34pct compared with the same period last year. The proportion of the company's 2023Q3 industrial chain plate has increased, so that the company's profit margin and expense rate have been improved.
Diesel generator sets, shipbuilding and other high-profile business is expected to lead to continued high growth of the company's business: ① diesel generator sets: 2023H1 achieved a gross profit of 73 million yuan, + 68.15% compared with the same period last year, and newly signed orders in the domestic market exceeded 750 million yuan, mainly benefiting from seizing strategic opportunities such as "calculating from the east to the west" ② shipbuilding business is booming: due to the impact of increased transport demand and stringent environmental requirements, fleet replacement and new shipbuilding demand have increased significantly, and the green energy-saving design of the company's core ship type "Crown 63 PLUS" has been widely recognized by the market. 2023H1 shipbuilding business delivers 9 ships, of which 16 are newly signed, including 12 Crown 63 PLUS ships. As of the end of the 2023H1 period, the company has 57 shipbuilding orders in hand, of which 47 are Crown 63 PLUS ships, which are scheduled for 2026. In addition, the main cost of shipbuilding is steel, and the downward price of steel is expected to improve profit margins.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is the benchmark of the reform of central enterprises for employee stock ownership incentives in the business field. The company's market-oriented assessment mechanism can stimulate employees' vitality and help to promote the company's long-term sustainable development.
We basically maintain the company's 2023-2025 net profit forecast of 10.2 / 11.7 / 1.3 billion yuan, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 12% / 14% / 12%, corresponding to the closing price of 9 / 8 / 7 times Pamp E on October 25, and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: big goods price fluctuations, macroeconomic cycle, exchange rate fluctuations, shipbuilding business delivery cycle and so on.