The operation is under constant pressure and waits for improvement.
According to the company's three-quarter report, 23Q1-3 achieved revenue of 620 million, year-on-year + 1.9%, home net profit / deduction non-net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, year-on-year-2.9% net profit 4.8%; 23Q3 revenue 200 million, year-on-year-11.9%, home net profit / deduction non-net profit 0.3 billion, year-on-year-18.8% ram 16.9%. 23Q1-3 is affected by the overall weak recovery of the external consumer environment, the company's short-term operation is under pressure, and the pace of production capacity has been delayed.
At the end of 23Q3, the number of franchise stores increased by 103 to 1798 compared with the end of 22. At the same time, the company upgraded its product packaging, terminal stores and brand communication chain. With the gradual improvement of terminal consumption, the company is expected to pay close attention to the prefabricated vegetable market dividend and BC strategy. With the new plant put into production, the shackles of the company's production capacity is expected to be gradually lifted. It is estimated that the EPS for 23-25 will be 1.04 bonus 1.22 EPS 1.37 yuan, with reference to the comparable company's 24-year average 35xPE (Wind consensus expectation), and a 24-year 35xPE with a target price of 42.70 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The product category continued to expand, with a net increase of 103 to 1798 product end stores at the end of 23Q3 compared with the end of 22. Revenue from 23Q1-3 meat, poultry / aquatic products / other categories increased by 4.1 to 170 million, compared with + 2.5%, 1.7% and 8.0%, of which 23Q3 revenue was 1.4 million, 12.4% and 25.6% compared with the same period last year. The company continues to expand its product range and is committed to meeting the diversified dining needs of consumers. On the channel side, 23Q3 retail channel revenue was 130 million, year-on-year-11.0%, of which franchise stores / distributors realized revenue of 11,000,000, year-on-year-6.4% and 27.1% respectively; by the end of 23Q3, the company had 1798 franchise stores, a net increase of 103compared with the end of 22; 23Q3 wholesale channel revenue of 50 million, year-on-year-25.4%; by the end of 23Q3, the company had 519 wholesale customers, a net increase of 77 over the end of 22 23Q3 e-commerce customers achieved revenue of about 407000 yuan,-81.7% compared with the same period last year.
23Q3 gross profit margin year-on-year + 2.4pct, fee allocation efforts to deduct non-net profit margin year-on-year-0.9pct23Q1-3 gross profit margin year-on-year + 2.0pct to 26.2% dag23Q3 year-on-year + 2.4pct to 26.2%. On the expense side, the 23Q1-3 sales expense rate is from + 1.1pct to 4.8% compared with the same period last year (23Q3 year-on-year + 2.3pct to 5.9%), mainly due to the increase in personnel; the 23Q1-3 management expense rate is mainly due to the increase in personnel year-on-year + 1.1pct to 4.7% (23Q3 year-on-year + 2.6pct to 6.2%), mainly due to the increase in personnel and the depreciation of the company's new plant property. Recorded 23Q1-3 homing net interest rate year-on-year-0.9pct to 17.3% (23Q3 year-on-year-1.4pct to 16.1%), 23Q1-3 deducted non-net interest rate year on year + 0.5pct to 16.9% (23Q3 year-on-year-0.9pct to 15.7%).
On the production side, in early June 23, the company's new factory began trial production, and the subsequent capacity shackles are expected to be gradually lifted.
Wait for the company to improve and maintain its "buy" rating
Considering that there is still some uncertainty about the follow-up opening of the company and the revenue recovery of individual stores, we downgrade our profit forecast and estimate that in 23-25, EPS 1.04 and 1.22 will be 1.37 yuan (the previous 1.21 1.44 will be 1.66 yuan), and the target price will be 42.70 yuan (45.88 yuan before).
Risk tips: increased competition in the industry, lower-than-expected macroeconomic performance, food safety issues.