Event: the company released its Triple report for 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company realized revenue of 2.046 billion yuan, year-on-year + 41.92%, and net profit of 118 million yuan, + 55.71% of the same period last year. Among them, 23Q3 realized revenue of 755 million yuan, year-on-year + 60.06%, month-on-month + 2.39%, net profit of 45 million yuan, year-on-year + 67.07%, month-on-month + 21.68%.
The profitability of Q3 has improved and its performance is in line with expectations. Compared with 23Q2, the company's solder strip shipments increased significantly, we expect the company's relatively high value of SMBB, 0BB and BC solder strip products to increase the proportion of shipments, gross profit ratio + 1.46pct, up to 13.16%.
As a necessary auxiliary material for components, the demand for photovoltaic welding tape is steadily increasing. In 2023-2025E, we estimate that the global photovoltaic installation demand will be 400/480/590GW, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The proportion of MBB/SMBB/0BB/BC components in 2023 will be 60%, 30%, 7%, 3%, respectively, and the market demand for photovoltaic welding tape is expected to reach 19,9219.254 billion yuan, with a compound annual YoY+57.80%/+15.46%/+16.02%, growth rate of over 25%, and a broad market prospect.
Long-term market share is expected to increase, new products closely follow the downstream innovation. The company has successfully issued convertible bonds and plans to raise 585 million yuan to expand 20, 000 tons of new production capacity. We expect the company's long-term market share to reach 20% yuan, with a solid leading position. As of 23Q3, we estimate that the company's solder strip shipments have increased significantly compared with the previous month. The annual production capacity in 2023 is expected to reach 35000 tons and shipments are expected to reach nearly 30,000 tons. From a technical point of view, the company's interconnected welding strip for HJT battery chip low-temperature welding strip, 0BB welding strip smooth mass production, bus strip for BC battery flat round products, black and reflective bus belt are stepping up shipments to the head assembly factory, the future is expected to further boost the company's future performance.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company's return net profit from 2023 to 2025E to be 1.99max 3.34 / 449 million yuan respectively, which is 34.6% compared with the same period of last year. The corresponding EPS is 1.91 Compact 3.21 Universe 4.32 yuan respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: intensified market competition, raw material price fluctuations, exchange rate fluctuations, accelerated technological innovation