Events:
The company issued a particularly important contract announcement, the company signed a 340 million yuan equipment procurement contract with Sichuan Gaojing, mainly to expand the semiconductor automation control system to new business, and the agreed delivery time is from November 4 to December 19, 2023. The amount of this contract is 155% of the total revenue of 22 years, and the signing of major contracts will help to boost the company's annual operating performance.
Comments:
The 10-fold expansion of silicon carbide downstream in 3 years brings high β, and the share increase has strong α. The company's main silicon carbide crystal furnace and semiconductor crystal furnace equipment, has entered Sanan Optoelectronics, BYD Semiconductor, Tony Electronics, Tianyue Advanced, Shanghai Silicon Industry, Lionwei, Shengong shares and other downstream leading customers. We estimate that in 25 years, the domestic silicon carbide substrate is expected to reach 5 million, which is 10 times of the 22-year production capacity, fully benefit from the expansion of the dividend high β. At present, the yield of substrate manufacturers varies, ranging from 20-75%. In order to improve yield and reduce cost, substrate manufacturers have a strong demand for temperature, heat field and other DIY. Different from the bidding strategy of competitive products, the company actively responds to the customized demand of improving yield downstream, and its share is expected to increase from the current 20% to 40%, with strong alpha.
The technology of semiconductor crystal furnace equipment is leading, and there is a broad space for domestic substitution. At present, 70% of domestic 12-inch crystal growth equipment depends on imports, and the localization rate urgently needs to be improved. The company's semiconductor-grade single crystal silicon furnace completely covers the mainstream 12-inch, 8-inch light-doped and heavily doped silicon wafer preparation, and the above 28nm process has achieved batch production, which can meet the growth and manufacturing requirements of semiconductor-grade silicon wafers with different technical specifications. With the development of silicon wafer market, the domestic production rate will continue to improve.
Equity incentive objectives to support the bottom, longitudinally expand epitaxial furnace cutting equipment and other areas to open up the growth space.
The company's revenue in 2022 is 220 million yuan. according to the equity incentive plan announced by the company on August 18, the agreed performance evaluation target is 2023 and 2024. The revenue in 2025 will increase by no less than 80%, 170%, 270% over 2022. On the one hand, the high performance goal shows the confidence of the company, on the other hand, with the rapid growth of income, the scale effect is released, which will effectively dilute fixed costs such as R & D expenditure and investment in fixed assets. Help improve profit margins. In addition, in order to further improve the layout of silicon carbide production equipment, the company vertically extends silicon carbide epitaxial growth and crystal processing equipment, and vigorously develops multi-wire cutting machine equipment and multi-chip CVD equipment, which is currently progressing smoothly, and after successful research and development, it is expected to rely on existing customer advantages to quickly import, increase the value share in a single customer. We estimate that the domestic market space for silicon carbide epitaxial equipment is 6.4 billion yuan from 2022 to 2025, which is expected to further open up the growth space of the company.
Profit Forecast and Investment rating: we expect the net profit to return to the parent in 2025 is 278 million yuan, corresponding to PE, which is 278 million yuan in 2025. Considering that the company is expected to enter a period of rapid expansion in the next 3 years, it will be given a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: lower-than-expected demand, intensified competition in the industry, and changes in technology paths.