Company announcement: 2023Q1-Q3, the company achieved revenue of 642 million yuan / an increase of 14.95% over the same period in 19 years, a net profit of 212 million yuan / an increase of 14.63% over the same period in 19 years, and a net operating cash flow of 361 million yuan; of which, 2023Q3 realized revenue of 249 million yuan / an increase of 3.93% over 19Q3, and a net profit of 91 million yuan / an increase of 4.64% over 19Q3.
The summer passenger flow continued to increase, and the second consumer projects such as performing arts and hotels continued to recover. 2023Q3, the company's revenue increased by 3.93% compared with 19Q3, sub-items: 1) cableway: 2023Q1-Q3, the three ropeways received a total of 4.825 million tourists / year-on-year + 193.19%. Among them, Yulong Snow Mountain cableway received 2.481 million tourists / year-on-year + 130.88%, Yunshan Ping cableway received 2.0393 million tourists / year-on-year + 297.14%, and Yuniuping cableway received 304700 tourists / year-on-year + 428.99%. In terms of Q3 alone, the reception volume of Yulong Snow Mountain and spruce Ping cableway both exceeded 800000, approaching the upper limit of bearing capacity, especially the spruce ping ropeway benefited from the diversion of large cableway, with a significant increase compared with the previous month. 2) performances: impression Lijiang has a total of 569 performances, receiving a total of 1.2927 million tourists / year-on-year + 393.09%, achieving business income of 120 million yuan / year-on-year + 395.14%. The increase in the proportion of summer group guests led to the growth of Erxiao. "impression of Lijiang" was performed once a day, and the average number of daily shows increased from 1.71 in 23Q1 to 2.41 in 23Q3. 3) Hotel and Commercial Street: Lijiang Hefu Hotel Co., Ltd. (including Continental Hotel, Indigo Hotel, Ancient City Lishi Hotel, 5596 Shopping Street, Lishishan House) achieved business income of 116 million yuan / year-on-year + 67.01%. Diqing Shambala Tourism Investment Co., Ltd. (including Diqing Indigo Hotel, Benzilan Lishi Hotel, Shangri-La Lishi Hotel) achieved business income of 2977.33 million yuan / year-on-year + 68.88%. The original hotel project has made a profit in the first half of the year, and the cultivation of the new hotel project is accelerated, and it is expected to reduce losses for the whole year.
From the perspective of profit margin, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of 2023Q3 are 62.30% and 40.60% respectively, which are 12.98% and 4.02pct lower than 19Q3 respectively. After excluding the impact of the new accounting standards, profitability has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic level, which is speculated to be mainly due to the impact of new hotel projects.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company occupies the leading position of tourism in northwest Yunnan, with high-quality tourism resources of Shangri-La Ring (Lijiang, Shangri-La, Benzilan, Bucun, Batang, Aden, Lugu Lake, Jinsha River tourism belt), the overall tourism growth rate of the region also leads the domestic; at the same time, Lijiang transportation and urban track continue to improve, and the headquarters into the mountain traffic and ropeway reconstruction project is expected. Taking into account the impact that the recovery of the second consumer project is weaker than that of passenger flow, the profit forecast is lowered, and the net profit from 2023 to 2025 is estimated to be 24900000000000 yuan, corresponding to the closing price PE of 18.0Univer on October 25, 2023, which is 14.6 times higher than that of the previous year.
Risk tips: passenger flow growth is not as expected, industry systemic risk, corporate governance risk and so on.