23Q3 销售毛利率20.3%，达到2020 年Q3 以来新高据公司三季报，23Q3 公司销售毛利率20.3%（yoy+5.2pct，qoq+3.0pct），达到2020 年Q3 以来新高。一方面公司PQF 产线产能持续释放，且产品主要为高端的油管、套管、管线管、品种管、锅炉管等产品。另一方面，公司坚持产品和市场双转型，开发新的行业特殊用管，坚持“专精特新”定位，2023 年成功取得中石化、中海油非API 准入资格，超级13Cr 产品进入中海油市场并获得客户认可；电力管抢抓机遇，合同质量明显提升；积极拓展海外客户，完成多个国家石油公司和国际知名油服公司认证或工厂审核。23Q1-Q3 's homing net profit is + 79.53% year-on-year, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
In the first three quarters, the company realized revenue of 5.115 billion yuan (yoy+13.95%) and net profit of 622 million yuan (yoy+79.53%); net profit of 23Q3 was 171 million yuan (yoy+2.87%, qoq-31.92%).
We maintain the profit forecast and estimate that the return net profit of the company in 23-25 will be 8060.901 million yuan respectively, excluding the exchange gain of about 100 million yuan, comparable to the company's average PE (2023E) of 10.5X, giving the company 23-year 10.5X PE, corresponding to the target price of 7.75yuan (the previous value of 7.68yuan), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
23Q3 sales gross margin 20.3%, the highest since Q3 in 2020, according to the company's third quarterly report, 23Q3 sales gross profit margin 20.3% (yoy+5.2pct,qoq+3.0pct), the highest since Q3 in 2020. On the one hand, the production capacity of the company's PQF production line continues to release, and the products are mainly high-end tubing, casing, pipeline pipe, variety pipe, boiler pipe and other products. On the other hand, the company adheres to the dual transformation of products and market, develops new industry special pipes, adheres to the position of "specialization and innovation", successfully obtains the non-API access qualifications of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp and CNOOC in 2023, and super 13Cr products enter the CNOOC market and are recognized by customers; power management seizes the opportunity, and the contract quality is significantly improved. Actively expand overseas customers, complete a number of national oil companies and international well-known oil service company certification or factory audit.
During the period, the cost increased compared with the previous period, while the exchange income decreased.
According to the company's semi-annual report, the expense rate of 23Q3 during the period is 6.74% (yoy+4.70pct,qoq+6.33pct), of which the sales expense rate is 0.79% (qoq-0.05pct), the management expense rate is 2.14pct (qoq+0.02pct), and the R & D expense rate is 3.69% (qoq-0.09pct), which remains relatively stable, while the financial cost of 23Q3 is 2 million yuan, an increase of 106 million yuan month-on-month, or mainly due to the thickening of exchange earnings in the second quarter. Overall, 23Q3's gross profit increased by about 52 million yuan compared with the previous month, while the increase in financial expenses led to a decrease in the company's operating profit.
Focus on ploughing the special pipe market and be optimistic about the development of the company
The company has an existing production capacity of 1 million tons, and its products are mainly oil well tubes, boiler tubes and variety tubes, in which the market share of the company's tubing and boiler tubes remains in the forefront, and the market expansion of specialized varieties of pipes such as petrochemical pipes and construction machinery pipes is enlarged to form new market segments and business growth points. In addition, the company plans to invest in projects with an annual output of 8500 tons of new energy and semiconductor specialties to achieve efficient coordination and high-end extension with existing products, while some products can replace imports and solve the neck problem. It is expected to further enhance the company's comprehensive competitiveness and improve the company's product structure, and we are optimistic about the development of the company.
Risk hint: downstream demand is lower than expected, raw material prices fluctuate sharply, and capacity release is not as expected.
